| Tai’an means "the country and the people are safe ",which was built at the foot of Mount Tai.It is an international tourist and cultural city,with its long history and culture,beautiful natural environment,and rapid economic development,which attracts people to settle here.The price of commercial housing is the result of the combined effects of its value,social economy,policy and many other factors.If the house price increases too fast,it will not only increase the pressure of residents to buy houses and affect the happiness index of life,but also raise the credit risk of banks and affect economic development and social stability.Therefore,studying on the price evolution and its influencing factors of commercial housing in Tai’an city is of great significance for the government to formulate relevant commercial housing control policies and guide residents to buy a house.The study takes the urban area of Tai’an as the research area,which obtains research data by looking up statistical yearbooks,real estate-related websites and on-site visits in Tai’an City.It analyzes the overall commercial housing price evolution and district evolution characteristics of commercial housing in Tai’an City by using the index analysis method and the comparative method.It uses theoretical and Pearson correlation method to analyze the correlation between the influencing factors of commercial housing prices in Tai’an urban area and the prices of commercial housing.It puts forward suggestions on the regulation of commercial housing prices in Tai’an urban area by analyzing the correlation of the influencing factors.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Study the evolution of commodity housing prices in the urban area of Tai’an.Study the price evolution of commercial housing in Tai’an urban area as a whole.Based on the10-year data of commercial housing in Tai’an urban area from 2009 to 2018,calculate the four price indicators of commercial housing price level,namely fixed price index,chain price index,house price income ratio,in order to analyze its evolution characteristics.The results show that the overall price of commercial housing in Tai’an urban area tends to be reasonable from 2009 to 2018.But the price-to-income ratio rebounded from 2017 to 2018,which indicates that it is more difficult to purchase a house than previous years and the rate of house price growth in 2017-2018 is faster.The price level of commercial housing in the urban area of Tai’an fluctuated steadily,with an increase of 73%.The price of commercial housing in the urban area of Tai’an rose from 4,193 yuan / ㎡ in 2009 to 7,255 yuan / ㎡in 2018.Among them,2014 and 2015 were the most volatile,rising 24.1% and decreasing12.54% respectively(2)Research on the price evolution of commercial housing in Tai’an city by district.According to the geographical characteristics of Tai’an urban area,urban planning,urban construction,relevant real estate network statistics,etc.,the Tai’an urban area is divided into five areas: east,west,south,central and along the Great Wall Road.Collect monthly commodity housing sales data in 5 regions from 2017 to 2019,and analyze the evolution of price levels in 5 regions.By comparing their respective characteristics,it is found that the price increase of commercial housing in the 5 regions is quite different.The highest increase in the price of commercial housing is 92.49% in the western region,rising from5630 Yuan/㎡ to 10837 Yuan/㎡;followed by the southern region with 84.10%,from 4733Yuan/㎡ rose to 8714 Yuan/㎡;the lowest growth rate in the central region was 55.8%,from 6550 Yuan/㎡ to 10205 Yuan/㎡.The average monthly change of commercial housing prices in the eastern region is the most stable,with the smallest standard deviation,with an increase of 64.9%,from 6,307 Yuan/㎡ to 10,401 Yuan/㎡.From 2017 to 2019,the average price of commercial housing in the central region was the highest in the five regions,at 8754.92 Yuan/㎡.Government policies and plans have promoted the growth of housing prices in the western and southern regions,and the central region still has obvious advantages.(3)Research on the influencing factors of the price evolution of commercial housing in Tai’an urban area.First,analyze theoretically the influencing factors of the changes in the price of commercial housing in Tai’an urban area,and then select 16 factors that affect the changes in the price of commercial housing in Tai’an urban area,collect data and use Pearson’s correlation analysis to analyze each influencing factor and its impact on housingprice changes.There are a total of 12 factors that are related to the price of commercial housing in Tai’an.The correlations from strong to weak are: per capita disposable income of urban residents,urbanization rate,total urban permanent population,urban GDP,Tai’an domestic The number of tourists,the area of urban gardens and green spaces,the total permanent population of the city,the area of urban roads,the cost of high-rise construction and installation,the benchmark land price,the floor price,and the investment in urban residential housing.There is no statistically significant correlation between the commercial loan interest rate of 5 years and above,the sales area of commercial residential buildings in the urban area,the area of commercial residential buildings for sale in the urban area,the number of completed units of commercial residential buildings in the urban area,and the price of commercial residential buildings in Tai’an urban area.Comprehensive analysis shows that housing prices in Tai’an urban area have the greatest correlation with economic development and housing demand,followed by urban construction and housing costs.Housing prices have little correlation with housing supply and interest rates.According to the research conclusions of the above three parts,suggestions are made to regulate and control the future prices of commercial housing in Tai’an from accelerating economic development,increasing residents’ income,increasing urban village reconstruction,and increasing affordable housing. |
