A Study On The Logistics Equipment Overhaul Cost Forecast And Overhaul Optimization

Under the development of modern social economic, logistics technology enhances unceasingly. Logistics equipment is the core competitive ability of logistics enterprise. Mechanization and automation becomes the development trend of the equipment. The diversity、efficiency and complexity of logistics equipment gradually revealed. So logistics equipment maintenance is particularly important. Good maintenance strategy can not only improve equipment performance and work efficiency, but also reduce the operation cost for enterprise.The cost of logistics equipment maintenance occupy the important position in the enterprise’s operation cost. And the cost of overhaul is a relatively large number in the maintenance cost of equipment. When logistics enterprise introduce new equipment, it will set up the budget of overhaul cost. The original method is affected by subjective factors. The objective and accurate prediction method can improve the utilization rate of enterprise funds. Many enterprise don’t have a detail plan for overhaul, they just determine a fixed overhaul intervals according to experience. This paper presents a dynamic optimization for overhaul period. In the premise of smallest maintenance cost, it set up a reasonable overhaul plan.This paper firstly expounds the present situation and existing problems of equipment maintenance management in our country, then analyze the structure and influence factors of the overhaul cost. It include equipment failure, equipment reliability, the utilization ratio of the equipment, maintenance degrees and the acceptable level of risk. Paper roughly divided into two parts. The first part forecast the overhaul cost budget for new equipment. This paper list the impact factors of overhaul cost and the performance parameters of the equipment. According to the types and quantities of equipment in the express logistics center are limited and they have a certain clustering tendency, this paper adopt variance components model to forecast the overhaul cost for main logistics equipment. It is compared with other regression methods to judge their quality. Another part is about the optimization of the overhaul interval for logistics equipment. Based on cost model and combined with the theory of incompletely maintenance it set a optimization model of overhaul. This model’s target is A minimizing total cost. Then using genetic algorithm toolbox in matlab solute the model. It get the optimal plan of the overhaul’s time.