The Empirical Research On The Influence Of Sino-US Trade Imbalance By The Age Structure Of Population

Based on the theories of the life-cycle theory, neo-classical growth theory andThe theory of comparative advantage，this paper explore changes in age structure ofpopulation impact on trade, using Vector auto regression model approach to analysisinfluence of China and the United States in their bilateral trade imbalance situation.The results confirm a robust impact of the factors of population age structure, theexchange rate and the industrial added value 0n bilateral trade to varying degrees.From the angle of age structure of population, not only can explain the effect of theaging population to consumption and savings and then acting on the trade balancebased on the traditional life cycle theory, but also can through the effect of supply oflabor in production areas to study China and the United States bilateral trade.Empirical research also show that: the influence of the young population is less thanthat of the elderly population in the factor of the population age structure, based onthis conclusion, with the development of the aging of the population, and the issue ofChina and the United States trade imbalance will gradually be relieved. The maincontent and perspectives of this study include the following aspects:(1)Under the background of the population age structure, Systematic expositionof the theoretical foundation of the China and the United States trade imbalance. Fromthe perspective of the population age structure, dependency ratio to measure thestructure of the population of all ages be use to explain changes in the current account.Theoretical foundation based on the following three points: First, the life-cycle theoryto analyze the different stages of different savings and consumption caused by tradeimbalances, second the neoclassical economic growth theory to analyze the effect ofthe population bonus to economic growth. Third expand the theory of comparativeadvantage, comparative advantage comes from factor endowment difference betweencountries is sources of output and its path of economic growth.(2)This chapter comprehensive and in-depth reflects the current situation ofpopulation structure and trade balance between China and America. First there existsdifference between China and the United States in their age structure of populationand bilateral trade balance, and then describes the resulting trade imbalances, Lastthis paper analyzes relationship between various economic indicators of the impact onSino-US trade imbalance on the background of the characteristics of Sino-US population age structure, and then lay a foundation for further research based on theempirical study foundation.(3)In order to validate the theoretical model, this econometric model in order toconsider the Sino-US trade balance in the population structure for a period of time,the data used two countries indicators annual data from1980 to 2010. And then verifythe proposed theoretical model and draw relevant conclusions.In the context of the global demographic transition, the innovation of this paperis to construct Sino-US relative aging indicators empirical analysis of the impact ofpopulation age structure of bilateral trade. This article is of the fresh perspective, inline with the current theme of the times, has a strong practical significance.