Forecasts Of China’s Timber Demand And Supply And Balance Countermeasures

On the basis of previous study of China’s timber supply and demand, this paper analyzed the status quo of China’s timber supply and demand, the main changes in recent years, and the main factors to limit wood supply capacity of China’s forest resources. Supply of China’s demand in2020is predicted with regression analysis and the consumption structure method. Wood supply in coming years is analyzed according to the existing mature forest resources. Besides, the maximum amount of timber is also calculated by using compound interest formula, with combination of the net growth rate of stock resource and forestland transfer.The regression analysis and the consumption structure method results show that in2020the demand for wood is roughly850-930million cubic meters, about twice that of2010. Furniture industry and paper industry will grow rapidly, contributing the most to wood demand. Our existing forest wood supply capacity level is limited by forest quality and comprehensive utilization. Comprehensive utilization rate is only56%during the period of the seventh continuous inventory in China; the national proportion of over-harvesting is about50%.Forest area will keep increasing mainly driven by forestland area which will reach about222.4million hectares in2020; The future supply of forest resources capacity from mature forest in the next10years is about400-490million cubic meters per year, over half of which is located in state owned forest. Coniferous wood is more than broad-leaved wood, and plantation resources account for less than20%; supposing over-harvest proportion is maintained, or it changes to25%or0%in2008-2020, stock of stumpage will respectively reach18.2,19.5,20.4billion cubic meters in these three scenarios. At that time, annual volume growth will respectively reach740million,790million and840million cubic meters, so timber can be provided to the market with the amount of420million,450million and470million cubic meters respectively, far less than wood demand of market in2020, Wood products imports with large quantities have to face the pressure from international organizations criticism, shortage of raw materials, increasing prices and the tremendous challenges of pest invasion. China has to promote the productivity of domestic forest, improve the saving and substitution level of wood, increase the investment and technology transformation, and optimize the import market structure to ease the situation of future supply and demand。...