The Research On Risk Assessment And Prevention About Overseas Investment Of Power Projects

International power consumption continues to grow. Foreign investment and international operations has gradually become the mainstream of enterprises. Meanwhile, Chinese government vigorously implement the "going out" strategy to encourage foreign investment, and the strength of the of electric power enterprises grows rapidly. In these contexts, accelerating overseas investment of electric power enterprises on power project is an inevitable trend. This is not only significant for the development of electric power enterprises, but also has far-reaching impact on the international operations of Chinese enterprises, the government’s energy security and energy policy. However, the uncertainty of the changing international situation and the investment environment of the host country pose a challenge for risk assessment and the control of the power projects of overseas investment. The paper mainly researched the risk assessment and control of power projects of overseas investment.In the analysis on the characteristics of overseas investment of electric power project, the paper used the theory of risk and analytic hierarchy process to identify and analyze the risk of the electric power projects overseas investment. The risk of electric power projects overseas investment was divided into six major categories of risk, which were political and military risks, social risk, economic risk, natural risks, technology risk and operational risk. On the basis of identification and analysis of electric power project overseas investment risk, thid paper used analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate electric power projects overseas investment risk, establishing electric power projects overseas investment risk assessment model,and carried on the empirical analysis by the Kampuchea Kamchay hydropower project. Then, this article focused on market risk of operational risks in the mature power market environment, established GARCH-VaR model to analysis the electricity price risk, and used California electric power market data to do empirical analysis. Finally, the paper gived the advices to power project overseas investment from the enterprise and national levels.