Research On Risk Assessment Model And Application Of Overseas Mining Projects M&A

This paper originates from the national social science fund project: “Research on risk assessment and early warning system of overseas mining investment management”.(Item number: 12CGL008).The main line of this paper is overseas mining project M&A risk assessment research.And based on the research of domestic and abroad documents,this paper using the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis,qualitative and quantitative analysis methods for comprehensive study of merger risk evaluation of China's overseas mining projects.The main contents of this paper are as follows:First of all,this paper summarizes the theory of overseas M&A and M&A risk administration,expounding the definition,characteristics,classification and basic procedures of overseas M&A and M&A risk administration,concluding the main methods of M&A risk assessment and summarizes both domestic and aboard research status of oversea M&A risk assessment.Secondly,this paper introduces the basic status of our country's overseas mine projects M&A and analyzes the inevitability of our country's overseas mine projects M&A.This paper analyzes and identifies the main risk of overseas mine projects M&A and builds two sets of evaluation index system from the macroeconomic level and project level,dividing the process of overseas mine projects M&A risk assessment into two steps from the macroeconomic level and program level,and on the basis of index system,the rate and score of each index was confirmed.Thirdly,in terms of the index weight calculation,this paper builds the TFN-RS model to calculate combined index weight,using the objective index weight which is calculated by the rough set theory to revise the subjective index weight which is calculated by the triangular fuzzy number theory to overcome the weakness of the single subjective or objective weighting methods.In respect of the risk assessment,this paper combines the Matter-element theory and the cloud theory,using Matlab to calculate the membership degree of each index to each risk level.Then it constructs the cloud and Matter-element model to evaluate the risk of overseas mining projects M&A.Fourthly,using the established model to evaluate the risk of our country's acquisition of the Kami iron ore of Alder lung Corporation,which is located in the western of Labrador,Canada.The evaluation results show that the macroeconomicrisk level is low,and the program risk level is lower.The results show that the combination of the TFN-RS model and the cloud and Matter-element model is an effective method to assess the risk of overseas mine projects M&A.This method has a good great value of promotion,which provides a new thought to the risk evaluation of our country's overseas M&A.