Measurement And Prevention Research Of Critical Risk In Small And Medium-sized Logistics Enterprises

In recent years, China’s economic and financial crisis suffered a small setback, but the logistics industry in China is still getting a more considerable development. With the imminent implementation of "The12th Five-Year Plan", the next few years, the logistics industry as an accelerator of the national economy, will usher in a new period of development. The risk factors faced by the logistics enterprises in the course of the operation are also increasing, which have become the chief of obstacles of an enterprise in further development. At the same time, the characteristics and trends of the logistics industry determines the logistics companies faced with more types of risks and suffered greater losses than the other sectors. It is very important for the management decision-makers of the business to adopt a scientific approach to evaluate the risk of the logistics enterprise by making corresponding trade-off according to its own business and risk tolerance to provide a scientific basis, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of logistics enterprises.However, the research on the logistics enterprise risk management, especially for small and medium-sized logistics enterprises, lack of comprehensive logistics business risk awareness and not yet to form an effective risk management mechanism. Therefore, making risk assessment and taking corresponding measures of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is of greatly theoretical and practical significance.This dissertation begins with the meaning of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises and their risks, then introduces the basic theory of the risk, and selects business risk from a number of risks faced by small and medium-sized logistics enterprises as the critical risk. Dividing the business risk reflected by the financial indicators into four aspects of profitability, solvency, operational capabilities, the ability to grow for further analysis. Followed by the using of a comprehensive evaluation model to construct indicators of risk evaluation system:a cluster analysis to identify the necessary research from a number of indicators in the critical risk indicator system; the principal component analysis and hierarchical analysis to determine the index for each weight of the layer index; combined with the gray relational method to be divided into the extent of risk; the using of fuzzy evaluation method to get the final results of the assessment. Then, through a specific enterprise example to describe and examine the application of the model, it come to the conclusion of the case of enterprise risk is "mildly dangerous", and detailed results of analysis of the conclusions. Finally, with the critical risk, we propose the corresponding countermeasures such as the establishment of operational risks early warning systems, moderate debt management and the appropriate preventive measures to strengthen accounts receivable recovery management.