Risk Analysis And Countermeasures Of CBM Power Plant Project

CBM is a kind of clean energy, but also the major hidden dangers of coal mine production safety. In December2011, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Board jointly issued "coal bed methane (coal gas) development and utilization of the special plan of the12th Five-Year Plan". On March222012, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "coal industry"12th Five-Year "development plan". These will promote the integrated development of coal-bed methane. China takes development of the coal-bed methane industry as a planning priority, strongly encouraging the coal bed methane extraction and utilization projects, supporting the coal enterprises to set up comprehensive utilization of coal-bed methane electric plant. Large Coal Mine Group mine drainage of CBM as fuel for power generation, reducing the waste of resources and the hidden dangers of coal mine safety. The development of comprehensive utilization of coal bed methane power plant project has great social and environmental benefits,and it meets the country’s policy of vigorously developing the circular economy, implementing recycling-based production methods and increasing the environmental protection efforts.On the basis of the analysis of domestic and foreign scholars on risk and risk management research, this paper brings the concept of risk into the coal bed methane power plant project, trying to establish the list of risks and evaluation index system of the risk factors of coal-bed methane power plant, and the use of principal component analysis and systems engineering interpretative structural modeling methods to analyze and research, enriching the research of risk management of CBM-fuel power plant project.First, this paper starts from analyzing a variety of factors that impact the coal bed methane power plant project, and initially established a list of risk factors through field research and extensive collection of information. Impact factors of the various stages are summed up in accordance with the power plant project cycle. In the project approval stage, political risks, natural risks, legal risks, financial risks are involved. In the project design phase, design technical risks and the risk of geological survey are involved. In the project construction phase, technical risks, personnel risks and other risks are involved. In the phase of project operation, operations management and market risks are involved. In accordance with the principle of scientificity, operability, guidance quality, quantization and flexibility, we screening and filtering the list of risks, and ultimately establish the evaluation index system of risk factors for coal bed methane power plant project.Secondly, on the basis of the established risk factor index system specific quantitative evaluation and the analytic hierarchy process were taken to the index. This paper respectively uses principal component analysis method and interpretative structural modeling method of system engineering analyzing the index system of risk factors. This paper takes a coal-bed methane power plant of Jin city,Shan xi province Anthracite Mining Group as case study, through interviews, questionnaire survey methodology researching the risk factors of coal bed methane power plant project, optimizing and correcting the list of risk factors and establishing the risk evaluation index system of The power plant A. Then we use principal component analysis and interpretative structural modeling to carry out specific analysis. In the process of principal component modeling, we use the statistical software SPSS to calculate the sample correlation coefficient matrix, obtaining the eigenvalues of the matrix (ie, the variance contribution rate), and according to the calculated factor cumulative contribution rate extracting factors, extracting principal components from factor, and then screening and summarizing the relatively larger impact factors of CBM power plant project. Then we using the interpretative structural model determine the risk factors set of the major risk factors, establishing the adjacency matrix and reach-ability matrix,of the risk structure, and taking level division to the reach-ability matrix, establishing the skeleton matrix and interpretative structural model, and drawing conclusions according to the analysis of the model.Finally, on the basis of analysis of the conclusions, regarding the risk management for coal bed methane power plant project, suggestions that avoiding risks through measures such as risk control, risk retention and risk transfer are proposed.Through this study, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the coal bed methane power plant project has been systematically established; as to method, principal component analysis model method and the interpretative structural model of systems engineering are combined together, and applied to the evaluation levels of analysis of risk factors, the main factors affecting coal-bed methane power plant project as well as a hierarchy of the factors are brought out; management strategies and suggestions regarding the main influencing factors of coal-bed methane power plant project are given.