Resear On Risk Interaction Of Oversee Engineering Projects In ZJ Group Based On Interpretative Structural Model

With the deepening and expansion of the initiative named "One Belt And One Road",ZJ Group overseas engineering project number and volume are increasing.The political,economic environment is changeful and the cultural differences and diversity of overseas projects are highlighted,which greatly improves the complexity of risk management.The complexity of risk management in overseas engineering projects is related to the relationship between project risk factors,and how to effectively explore these"relationships" and put forward the corresponding risk control strategies hasbecame a major challenge in the risk management process of ZJ Group overseas projects.By analyzing the current situation of risk management of oversea engineering projectsin ZJ Group,some problems such as fragmentation of project analysis,low consistency of risk evaluation results,passive risk response,high cost of control and poor effect were found.The root causes of these problems are the neglect of risk associated relationship in risk management.Therefore,the targeted problem-solving ideas are desigened.That is,explaining and analyzing the project risk-related relationship Based on Interpretative Structural Modeland accordingly put forward the principles and strategies of risk control.In order to construct the interpretative structural model of ZJ Group's overseas engineering project,the risk adjacency matrix was gotafter the identifying of risk factor by preliminary identification and secondarily Identification,and the relationships identifiing by direct judgement and indirect judgementbased on the interview method,and then reachable matrix were obtained by calculating the adjacency matrix.What's more,the reachable set and first set were got by the reachable matrix and then the hierarchical result is obtenedby the iterative method.Based on the hierarchical results and adjacency matrix,the final interpretative structure model of ZJ Group oversea engineering projects is obtained.The model is used to characterize the risk system of ZJ Group's oversea engineering projects.It can be used to analyze the risk system from the whole model and the local model(key risk).The results show that the risk structure model of ZJ Group's oversea projects has high activity,deep and complex structure,the occurrence of specific risks is easy to produce the rapid impact of the model as a whole;the model has obvious key risks,including root causes risk,convergence risk and intermediate risk.According to the risk interpretative structure model of ZJ Group overseas engineering project,the principles and strategies of risk control were designed.The risk management principles were desigened from the aspects of the whole model and the key risk in the model.The overall principle of the model is:mining risk impact path carefully anddesign risk warning informationbased on the path;risk control should based on the risk relationship.Key risk principles are:root causes risk should be avoidwith might and main;intermediate risk should be conroled by two-way method;convergence risk should be controlled by integrated strategies.Desigened the specific strategies for the key risks,such as HSE risk,legal and regulatory risk,financing risk,exchange rate risk,cultural difference risk and political risk.The research on the oversea engineering projects in the ZJ Group based on the interpreativestructural model can provide advises for ZJ Group's risk management.What's more,it is possible to provide guidance for the risk management of other enterprises in the industry and other projects of the ZJ Group.The shortage of this research is lacking of the analysis of the relationship's dynamic and the future study can solve this problem by the methods System Dyamic and Network Dynamic Analysis.