Performance Evaluation Of China’s Aluminum Industry Energy Policy

Our country has promulgated a series of energy-saving policies, regulations and special industrial policies to promote energy conservation in China’s aluminum industry.In order to explore how these energy-saving policies performance, we select the comprehensive evaluation method after analyzing the policy performance evaluation methods and taking into account the pros and cons of various methods. According to the characteristics of China’s aluminum industry, we select16key indicators of aluminum open-pit mining, aluminum smelting, the aluminum material and reasonably build energy-saving policy performance evaluation index system of China’s aluminum industry. Through the use of objective and subjective combination of the expert survey and information entropy method to determine the weights of the index system and a comprehensive evaluation of the performance level of the energy conservation policy of the aluminum industry in China, we obtain the comprehensive performance value of energy-saving performance of each year. Secondly, we establish a gray relational model with the gray relational thinking. On the basis of a comprehensive evaluation of the performance level of the energy conservation policy of the aluminum industry in China, we do some research about the key factors that affect the performance level of the energy conservation policy. Meanwhile, to study the synchronization and lag relationship that the indicators relative to Peaks and troughs of the energy-saving performance level, we calculate the gray absolute relational degree between each indicator and the comprehensive performance values of the energy-saving policies when the value of each indicator move to the right on the timeline with considering energy-saving policy performance values of the aluminum industry as the benchmarks through the use of the gray relational analysis and we analyze the time difference that indicators relative to the energy-saving policy performance. Finally, in order to study the energy contribution of energy-saving policies of the aluminum industry, we forecast the values of indicators from2006to2009with the use of gray prediction model GM (1,1) and calculate the comprehensive performance value with the use of the combination of subjective and objective assignment method. And we get the energy contribution by comparing the actual and predicted values. The results show that, due to the existence of energy-saving policy, the aluminum industry in energy efficiency achieve significant results, but the indicators play a role in varying degrees and there are some differences between the synchronization and lag relationship that the indicators relative to Peaks and troughs of the energy-saving performance level. So the energy contribution is different in different years. According to the analysis above, this paper presents some relevant policy recommendations.