| Supply Chain Finance has become a popular business model in recent years, it canprovide a new way to solve the problem of SME financing. The biggest innovation of SupplyChain Finance is that it requires banks to concern about the credit status of the entire supplychain. Relationships among the participants in the chain are very complicated; and we can usesimulation technology to simplify the complex phenomenon.In this paper, we first analyzed the characteristics, the manifestations and causes of creditrisk for Supply Chain Finance. Then we took Game Theory to build credit risk game modelsfor the three different specific credit products and SME lending alliance in the supply chainfinancial system.Based on Simon’s bounded rationality, we summed up two rules for agents in the system:the intended strategy based on best response, and the replicator dynamics based onreinforcement learning and imitation. After that, we designed four simulation models forSupply Chain Finance: bank-enterprise two players game simulation, bank-enterprise threeplayers game simulation, SME lending alliance multiplayer game simulation, and banks-enterprises multiplayer game simulation.During the simulation, the following questions were solved: First, the combinations ofplayers’ behavioral strategies were well designed. Second, the uncertain behavioral factors ofplay3were described through random numbers. Third, the stability of system both forsingle-population and multi-population were analyzed. Forth, the deterministic dynamicsystem was changed into a stochastic one by adding a Brownian motion. And in addition, theidea of "mutation" is also used in our model to imitate the influence of play3to the system.Overall, this paper combined Game Theory and Multi-agent simulation technology toresearch the credit risk in Supply Chain Finance, which provided a new perspective for bankcredit risk management. And through the simulation results, we also got some valuableexperiences for banking practices. |
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