The Empirical Research Of Estimation Problem Of Listed Companies’ Stock

In recent years, China’s capital market institutional construction has made significant progress, such as, put out of small and medium enterprise market, launched equity division reform, the growth enterprise market, the IPO launched system reform, margin innovation pilot, the refinance business, and the international enterprise market which will be introduced in the near future. Such reforms make China’s capital undergone a fundamental change, has achieved great development. However, China’s security market is facing with many problems, one of the important problem is the return on the stock investment is too low, the majority of people entering into the stock market will continue losing, few people can realize gain. This status is related to the immature, unhealthy, lack of standardization properties of our stock market, to the lack of a complete and scientific, standardized, and orderly mechanism of our stock market, to the perfect security market system not really established. In such a immature market environment, how to judge the investment value of the listed company stock?Along with the development of the Chinese security market, the value investment philosophy has been deeply rooted among the investors gradually, and become the main investment strategy of investors, especially institutional investors. Theories and practices show that the price of the stock fluctuation is related to the intrinsic value of the listed company closely. Therefore, how to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock became an important subject of the securities market, this is also the problems investors focus on. The purpose of this paper is to conduct detailed discussion of this problem, propose feasible method, and use a listed company as case to perform detailed analysis.This paper reviews and summarizes the current mainstream equity valuation theories, combined with the actual situation of the listed companies and the capital market in China, discusses the problem of the parameters determine in the discounted free cash flow model (DCF model) in detail. Then put the hot company "baling science and technology" as case of empirical research, forecast it’s the future earnings condition in detail, and use the DCF model and P/E ratio to estimate it’s stock.Through detailed case analysis, this article shows the application method of common model——DCF model, investors can imitate the valuation measure on the stock interested.