The Empirical Study Of The Rmb Exchange Rate Impact On Foreign Trade Of Our Country

According to traditional economic theory, the exchange rate is the price of the tradebetween country. Its change affect a country’s trade balance. Since opening andreform,the economic of our country is in rapid growth, the trade surplus of every yearis very large. However, in recent years, especially2011, China’s favorable balance offoreign trade surplus decline.The exchange rate is divided into two types In economics: that is the nominalexchange rate and real exchange rate. The nominal exchange rate is the relative priceof the currency of the two countries: the real exchange rate is the relative price of theproduct of the two countries. The real exchange rate is the most essential factor ofimpacting the trade. Thus, the starting point of this study is the real effective exchangerate on the balance of payments. The articles selected sample data is the data of the1994-2009decade, collect the price level of the10major trading countries andregions, to accurate the trade balance in recent years. Using the consumer Price Indexto measure the RMB real effective exchange rate. The weights of all countries isdetermined by the proportion of their exports to our countries.This article seem Rose and Ye1len(1989)’S Simplify the trade balance model as aframework, research the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables, thereal exchange rate and the trade balance. The model is a "two-state" model, Usemicro-economic theory of supply and demand analysis method, that is import andexport volume depends on the domestic and international prices and domestic andforeign real income level. We add into the other nine countries on the basis of thismodel, The abroad include ten countries, View the10countries as a nation, Then usethe "two-state" model, in the process of import and export statistics, there is theinflation and other factors Interference, the Change of import and export volume doesnot accurately reflect the change of the international trade situation, therefore, correctthe import and export volume, return amended import and export volume in the model. Since the RMB exchange rate peg to the dollar in fact, but the China-US trade is notChina’s all foreign trade, therefore, in the calculation of the exchange rate, weightedaverage exchange rates of countries.This paper research objectives is the real effective exchange rate and tradebalance.The full text is divided into five parts:The first part,Exchange rate relatedconcepts defined,Fundamentally a clear to understand what factors affect the tradebalance,mainly the price,Moreover, the trade weights.The second part, Mainly areSome theories of exchange rate affect the trade balance.Introduce some events oftheory,and the lack of these theories,in order to explain the theory is not the goldenrule.Take this to illustrate the exchange rate to determine the balance of trade theory isnot necessarily correct.The third part,Review of China’s exchange rate regime,In orderto study the reform of RMB exchange rate system and foreign tradeadjustment,Collect the import and export volume of China’s,Annual changes ofexchange rates,Control the import and export volume and exchange ratechanges,View their relationship,and,exist a certain influence from the date. Exchangerate depreciation, the trade surplus, the exchange rate appreciation is not conducive totrade surplus.The fourth part, do the empirical test.Verify the results of qualitativeresearch in the real effective exchange rate,The articles selected sample data is thedata of the1994-2009decade, First is the stability test,use the ADF model,Second theco-integration test,result the real exchange rate make trade change.The fifth part,Thepolicy recommendations,this article detail comprehensive and detailed policyrecommendations.