| With the acceleration of urbanization into the city, the rapid development of social economy, a large population into the city, urban development and ZhuZhaiFang real estate in the contradiction between the increasingly apparent, subsequently and produce housing is not reasonable, house prices high, real estate bubble in a more serious problems, although the country has taken a corresponding macroeconomic measures, to stabilize the housing prices rise rapidly, limit the investment demand, adjust the housing housing structure, ensure that real estate economic "soft landing", but still face a housing shortage and unreasonable situation, a large number of low-income groups also because of the high cost of living, difficult to settle down in the city homes. In order to keep healthy and stable development of real estate industry ZhuZhaiFang, still want to focus on the reasonable on the land from the equilibrium and housing supply and analysis, this paper also mainly through the use of system dynamic theory to urban residential real estate market positions on the simulation research, making macro policies for the government to provide the reference.This paper is mainly by system dynamics theory, housing demand theory, real estate economic theory as a foundation, and then the influence factors of the real estate market index house select and comparing analysis of the established system dynamics model, and the model were built under the condition of the simulation test, according to the test results the adjustment model structure, and get2008to2020years the housing market forecast trend chart.Secondly, in the forecast data based on the result of further to the land, financial parameters for the computer simulating the policy test, test the policy change of parameters of the housing market the influence of future trends.Finally, the simulation results of the study and analysis, and combined with actual situation housing market development, and puts forward some policy Suggestions. |
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