| Since Market Economy was established, Bubble Economy has been always coming along with it. Real Estate Bubble has drifted the asset prices off basic value badly and made resource allocation become unbalance, so the macroeconomic developing has been very unnormal. Meanwhile, the intimate connection between real estate industry and banking deepen the fragility of financial system, and can easily cause the breakdown of bank capital chain, then incur financial systemic crisis.The status of real estate industry in China is very similar with that of global real estate industry. Since1998, along with the reformation in real estate market in China going deeper, the market has developed at an unprecedented speed; and the rate of development and investment has maintained a rapid speed of double-digit growth for seven years, and the rate reached up to20%～30%after2000; accounting for the social fixed assets investment, real estate investment ratio has always surged ahead, and it reached up to18.8%in2004; the complete floor space of commodity house has maintained a speed of double-digit growth; the rate of house price to income always remains in a high level at10:1; although the growth rate of commodity house sales price remains in single-digit level, the absolute price is absolutely high accounting for capita disposable income in the same year, and the rate is always between30%～40%.The real estate industry in China hooks on to bank credit funds. Since2001the growth rate of real estate loans has remain beyond25%, even reaching up to49.1%in2003and being28%higher than the growth rate of loans to financial institutions. Besides, accounting for loans to financial institutions, the proportion of real estate loans have raised from2.34%in1998to4.7%in2005. In2005, accounting for the remaining balance of financial institutions, proportion of the balance of the personal housing loans reached up to9.43%. Consequence from those records illustrates that it takes big risks the booming of real estate industry development depending much on bank credit funds.To be accompanied by the unceasingly expand of real estate, bank financial risks is becoming more and more visible, especially most estate agents have bad credit motivation today. Some experts anticipated that, accounting for the total loans to financial institutions, the proportion of financial balance of estate developing and personal housing loans was going to10%or so. If those problems cannot be taken good care of, such as Real Estate Mortgage Loans, Home Mortgage Loans, Creditors’Rights caused by Real Estate Investment and Trust, debt relations, etc., credit crisis will appear, and the operation of national economy will suffer much impacts and harms; besides, much international hot money enter into estate industry and estate bubbles will be easily produced, then, when the bubbles burst, financial institutions, especially banks, are going to suffer great losses, even more, big financial crisis is going to be initiated potentially.This thesis will prove the direct connection between estate bubble and housing price by theory method firstly, and indicates that the degree of bubble can be explained by observing housing price changing trends. Then, it will be proved that real estate market in China has already had bubbles and thus measure and calculate bubbles scale by using bubble monitoring indexes. Additionally, in views of Panel Data pattern in forms of long-term equilibrium equation and short-term error correction model, this thesis will discuss the differences of estate bubble regional fluctuate and analyze the reasons influencing the differences of estate bubble fluctuate in different areas. Conclusions are as follows:whether it is long-term or short-term, the sales volume stands for the requirement in estate market in current year and its effect to estate bubble is obvious. But, for each time, different kinds of requirements take different initiative, so bubble’s impacts to estate market developing are different. In the long term, the impacts of AING and INV to estate bubble are relatively bigger, which represent market requirement and supply from different angles; while in the short term, the impacts are not very showing. The results to bubble’s short-term fluctuate caused by interest rate is obvious, especially mortgage loans rate, but influencing level is not high. It means interest policy is not suitable for restraining short-term estate bubble.The innovation point of this thesis is the diversity and integrity of selecting monitoring index to estate bubble. So far, the index selecting in China has been resting on the single-index selecting phase, and it cannot reflect the status of the whole estate market and potential development tendency. According to principles of combining comprehensiveness with representiveness, combining theory with practice and independent creating, the thesis is going to structure a synthetically monitoring index system respectively from the angles of requirement, supply, price and finance. Meanwhile, comparing with similar documents before, the thesis is going to structure an econometric model with selecting much more diversified explanatory variable from different angles on the basis of the availability and observability of information, and, on this account, analyze more compressively the impacting facts to estate bubble and the degree of correlation of different facts. |
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