Empirical Research On The Foreign Exchange Earnings Structure Of China’s Inbound Tourism

Since the reform and opening up, China’s inbound tourism has a rapid development. From January to November of2011, the amount of foreign visitors which entered the Chinese mainland through various ways is124million (1.16%increased), creating S43.035billion foreign exchange income of inbound tourism (2.01%increased). For that matter, China successfully became the world’s fourth largest tourist exporting country, and China’s inbound tourism foreign exchange incomes among into the world’s top ten. Inbound tourism plays a very important role in China’s international trade of services, and maintains a sustained faster growth. The vigorous development of inbound tourism has laid a good growth foundation in the "12th Five-Year".To accelerate the development of healthy and stable inbound tourism market, is not only in line with the country’s macroeconomic strategy and policy, but also in line with the international trend of today’s low-carbon, environmentally friendly, and sustainable development, hence scientific rigor planning in the development. of inbound tourism plays an important role. Theoretically speaking, the inbound tourism consumption is mainly reflected the consumption structure. To improve the inbound tourism consumption and promote the growth of foreign exchange incomes from inbound tourism can optimize consumption structure characteristics and trends start. Structural characteristics and trends of inbound tourism consumption, not only on the variation and the development trend of inbound tourism consumption to fully grasp, but also be able to understand consumer demand for hot spots and the direction of development, but also for the consumer demand for hot adjust the industrial structure, optimize the development of the industry to ensure healthy and sustainable development of inbound tourism industry, to avoid duplication of investment, excessive construction problems occur.The article first select the1999-2010China’s inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings and structure of the data disclosed by the China Tourism Statistics Yearbook, the use of econometric theory to select variables, model parameters and model test, draw a reasonable economic significance explained; followed for the1999-2010China’s inbound tourism structure data into logical groupings, the division stage, and with gray correlation analysis method,depending on the size of the correlation value comparative analysis of inbound tourism consumption structure, and the impact of inbound tourism consumption structure the various factors from the role of the mechanism to quantify the performance of a description of the theoretical and practical aspects. Gray prediction model GM (1,1) and then used to predict the future five years of inbound tourism consumption trends and related data. Finally, the preceding empirical analysis the conclusions of the existing problems of China’s inbound tourism market and the challenges in the competitive market environment and opportunities to optimize the consumption structure of China’s inbound tourism to enhance inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings to keep the industry healthy sustainable development, to provide a constructive policy recommendations, and strive to achieve the scientific nature of the policy recommendations, guidance and practical.