Analyzing And Forecasting Of Inbound Tourism Market In Harbin

With the rapid development, tourism industry of Harbin has become strategic pillar industries. Fully tapping the potential value of statistical resources and deep studying the tourism market demand characteristics provide tourism industry of Harbin strong practical value which is beneficial to grasping the industry development context accurately and making strategic decisions legitimately. In addition, tapping and studying the tourism market is conductive to enhance the core competitiveness of the tourism industry and to provide more quality services for tourists.The main content of the article is studying the structural characteristics of inbound tourists who visiting Harbin. In order to provide basis for decision-making which include optimizing the structure of the tourism industry, improving the tourism planning, promoting the development of the tourism market and improve the quality of tourism services, it is necessary to clear the positioning, predict the flow of tourists, explore the influence of factors of market demand and found out the direction of development.After accessing to many related literatures, based on the original data of the tourism sample survey in Harbin from2009to2012,I use the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Index to analyze the stability of the source structure at first. Secondly, I use the Boston Matrix Model to position the tourist source market. Thirdly, I use the Gray GM (1,1) Model to predict the inbound tourists in future years. At last, I use the gray relational analysis method and the basic descriptive analysis method to study the factors that impact the source markets.First, structure of the inbound tourism market of Harbin is relatively stable. The main source markets appear to the diversification trend. The analysis of the source markets has a strong reference value. Second, the inbound tourist market of Harbin showing the source structure tourists high-end, age youth, self-travel mode, travel information network, travel quick service and other new trends. The tourism industry needs to restructure the model of economic development. Tourism products and services need to be more personalized and user-friendly. Third, the tourism market of Harbin is saturated. Accommodation bearing capacity and transportation capacity will be the main constraints. The principal issue in the economic model is the small-scale industry, weak competitiveness to the flexible tourism market demand and lack of representative tourist attraction.