The Research About The Differences Between CPI Statistics And The Feelings Of Residents

This article is mainly divided into four parts. The first part is the concept history、development of CPI and Chinese CPI current situation; the secondary is analyzing the citizens’pressure of Commodity prices by using cases (data includes the low income、middle income and high income citizens). The third part gives the reasons of deviation between CPI data and real feelings of citizens about CPI. The last part is providing suggests to solve the deviation from Government, Statistic department and Citizens.In the first part, it helps to analyze the defect of CPI in the following parts through the concept、history and current situation.In the second part, I choose three kinds of families. They are as follows:Low income family, Middle income family and High income family. Through analyzing their daily cost, comparing changes of cost and comparing with amount of increase of CPI from2009to2011. The result is that citizens face higher commodity price pressure than increase of CPI.The third parts gives threes reason leads to the deviation between CPI and the citizens’feeling. Firstly, the weight in CPI category is different with the actual cost of citizens—the weight of food is higher but the weight of hospitals、education、 housing is lower than the reality. This is one of most important reason for this deviation. Now, Engel coefficient of our country graduately decreases. Comparing with the past, the cost of food sharply falls in the whole cost of a family. However, the criteria of our country’s statistics revised several times, the weight of food in CPI is still occupies around1/3and it cannot reflect the current situation. Therefore, the raise of food price contributes to the increase of CPI. Moreover, with the development of economics and revolution, Housing,education and hospitals costs are the highest and in all the costs and these cost increased very quickly every year, but their weights are very low. As a result, CPI cannot reflect the pressure of these three parts due to the underestimate of housing,education and hospitals. In addition, the house price is not included in the housing statistics, we estimated the weight of housing which includes the changes of house prices is41.80%through the Stuart McFadyen、Robert Hobart the housing computational formula, it is far more than the17.22%which is published by the government.Secondly, the upgrading of citizens’cost structure leads to changes of prices. It means that prices of citizens’necessary commodities and services go up fast, but the price of non-necessary commodities and services increase slowly. The CPI data is the average of whole; it reflects prices increase of whole commodities and services. Therefore, citizens will get a stronger feel of prices changes than the CPI.Finally, Because of different endurance capacity for various kinds of income citizens, Low income families have lower endurance capacity for increasing prices than high income families. At the same time, due to the polarization of citizens’ income and low and middle income families occupy the majority in our country, most of citizens will fell that the prices go up faster than the CPI. Through estimating the CPI of city, country, middle and high income families, the result is that the cities’CPI is102.93; the countries’CPI is104.11. The gap between them is1.18percentage points. It proves that low income citizens face heavier stress to the increasing prices than high income citizens. So, it can be includes that majorities of society (they are low and middle income groups) feel stronger than the CPI which is reflected the average prices.In the fourth parts, this issue gives suggestions from statistics department, government and citizen aspects. In the statistic governments, they should decrease the weight of food; increase the weight of education, hospitals and changes of housing prices in CPI data. After these changes, the CPI data will give a more suitable data to reflect the structure of costs. Governments can improve low-income families’living standards and strengthen the real estate market supervision; these can improve low income families’ welfare and decrease their sensitivity about prices increase. Citizens should learn to how to manage money; they can buy some financial products such as golden, insurance, stock and so forth. In addition, they can check what costs are not necessary through own accounts, therefore; citizens can save some money from these aspects and increase their resistivity about prices increase. Because author has great interests about the gap between prices increase and citizens feels and wants to find reasons. Finally, reasons are found from statistics data and citizens feels. Statistics are truly not reflecting the structure changes of citizens cost with the economic developments and citizens’feeling are not true of prices increase also. Therefore, I find methods to solve this problem from these two aspects. For research methods, this issue has four new ideas:First, using the housing computational formula of Canada Stuart McFadyen、Robert Hobart and calculating the weight of housing which includes the houses prices changes; Second, dividing cities and countries’citizens into low, middle, and high income groups, calculating the real CPI of different group people and getting the result that low income people face heavier pressure than high income people to CPI; Third, using case to analyze costs of three families which stand for each group, it reflects the real stress of citizens.Finally, this article not only finds methods to solve the problem from aspect of statistics and also from aspects of governments and citizens themselves.