The Bullwhip Effect Research At Macro-level In China

Bullwhip Effect is a special circumstance which usually happened in supply chain management. In the past, it has been accepted as normal and seldom people focus on it. Yet, the Bullwhip Effect brings many negative effects on business performance, such as excess inventories, overtime expenses and quality problems. With the development of the economics, more researchers are paying attentions to the Bullwhip Effect in China. In this paper, we will focus on the Bullwhip Effect at macro-level in China, especially the product industries. China is the world product center. A little improve in the production will obtain great benefits.In this paper, we built a mathematic model to estimate the Bullwhip Effect in117product industries in China and found that the Bullwhip Effect emerged in80%product industries. Then we analyzed the differences between different industries. To find the factors which caused the differences, we constructed another model and discussed four factors, the demand autoregressive coefficient, the seasonality ratio, the number of companies in an industry and turnover. We divided the117industries in to consume industry, capital industry and resource industry, according to the Hoffman’s theo’ry and compared the difference between the three industries.