Research On The Power Shortage Of China——Based On The Supply And Demand Of Electricity

Electricity is the most important secondary energy.For it’s clean and convenient,Electricity is essential both in industrial production and in the daily lives of residents.Once the power down happens,not only a country’s economic development will be greatly affected,the normal life of the residents will also face a lot of inconvenience.Therefore,more and more attention has been paid to the safe, economical and reliable electricity production and supply.Electric power industry has become an important part of a country’s comprehensive energy strategy system.In the history of the Republic,China has a long-term of power shortage,however,with the development of the power industry,the situation has turn into a " power shortage-balance (or a slight surplus)-lack of electricity" cycle,to research the reason behind this cycle turn to have more and more practical significance.According to the characteristics of electricity products.this paper combined China’s energy resource endowments and institutional endowments which power industry is facing, analysis the main factors affecting the supply and demand of China’s power.the main contents and conclusions are as follows:1,Although China is an energy-producing country,but due to the rapid economic development,the fast growth in energy demand makes the overall energy supply and demand situation increasingly serious.As the main primary energy,the domestic production of coal has gradually failed to meet the demand.As years go on,coal imports will become an important part of China’s coal supply,and it will make the electricity supply in China face more and more uncertainty.2,The national economic growth is the most important impact on electricity demand.The household consumption will make a important role to affect the overall power demand in the following years.3,China’s "amount "power shortage is gradually shifted to structural shortage.4,Make a prediction of China’s demand for electricity between2012-2015by cointegration and ECM theory.