The Empirical Analysis On The Effect Of Power Supply Industry Made By Sale Price

China’s power industry is the national fundamental industry. Power not only has general goods value characteristic, but also has public welfare and social attribute. And the price of electricity has an important impact on power industry’s benefit and the development of the national economy. In2002, China’s power system had made a significant adjustment, five power groups and two power grid companies formed and practiced "power plants separated from electric network, competing electric price" policy. Since2003,market-oriented of coal price have prompted China’s thermal coal rise sharply, which made the conflict between "Marketing coal" and "Planning electricity" seriously and the cost of power increased dramatically. What’s worse, the power supply industry has also been affected. Therefore the government carried out "Mechanism of Coal-Electricity Price Linkage" to ease the conflict, and increasing generation price and sale price continuously. Every time increasing the sale price attract much more publicity. The problem is whether increasing sales price adds power supply industry monopoly profits, and realizes the expected goals-alleviating "electricity shortage" pressure. It is a urgent to proceed empirical analyses for the regulation effect of sale price.This paper gathers and organizes a nationwide sale price and relevant data of power supply industry, using econometrical method, analyzing the conduction mechanism that the sale price fluctuation influence production and profit of power supply industry, meanwhile comparing the production structure of electric power enterprise in different regions. Because the data material is limiting, there are some errors in the empirical results. However, there errors could not change the basic conclusion of the paper.The composition and main content of this paper follow as:Chapter1is introduction. It introduces the background of topic selection, regulation theory, present condition of domestic and international research, innovation and shortage of the thesis briefly.Chapter2reviews the reform of sales price regulation system in China, including electricity price regulation theory, the reform history of power supply industry and regulation history of the sale price.Chapter3researches the influences that sale price affects on profit and production of power supply industry basing on co-integration and error correction model. The researches in profit of power supply industry show that sale price causes the greatest influence in a lot of influencing factors. Every1cent/kwh increase in quarterly sale price translates into1.524billion increase in profit of power supply industry in long term. Every100million kilowatt-hours increase in quarterly production of power supply industry translates into29million profit. Every100million increase in quarterly total tax translates into242million falls in profit. Every100million increase in quarterly main business cost translates into27million falls in profit. The total asset has tiny negative influence on profit. The fluctuation of power supply industry profit is small in short term, but the long-term equilibrium is strong. The researches in production of power supply industry show that sale price causes the greater influence in a lot of influencing factors, so does line loss rate. But it is hard to develop line loss rate. Every1%increase in quarterly sale price translates into23.67%increase in power supply industry production. Every1%decrease in quarterly line loss rate translates into21.31%increase in power supply industry production. Every1%decrease in quarterly main business cost translates into4.84%fall in production. Every1%increase in quarterly the total asset translates into3.2%increase in power supply industry production.Chapter4researches the influences that sale price affects on production of power supply industry in different provinces basing on Panel Data model. The result shows that, in1993-2010, production function structure of power supply industry in29provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) has obvious difference. The sale price has a positive influence on production except for Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Yunnan and Gansu. The sale price makes the highest contribution to the production of power supply industry in Fujian province, and Guangdong is followed. The line loss rate has tiny positive influence on production, while buy power demand has large positive influence on production.At last, Chapter5suggests policy advices by analyzing the empirical results from earlier chapters. For example, constructing the modern regulation system of power industry, adjusting in sale price appropriately and constructing a reasonable tax system of power industry.