The Empirical Research On The Demand And Supply Of The Electric Power Of China

The electricity is the symbol of the modern industry civilization. It is the essential investment of production and the necessity of people's life. With the economical development, the electric power industry is playing more and more important role in the national economy. Our country is experiencing a process, in which the electricity energy is replacing non-electric energy, the application area of electricity is widening, and the development of the economical society depends more and more on the electric power. Since the reform and opening of our society, the demand and the supply of Chinese electric power are both growing faster than any other countries in the world, but the electric power industry of China always runs into an unceasing samsara of "the strange circle" between shortage and surplus. In a long run, the electric power development become a bottleneck to the economical development, therefore there is an important significance in theory and in policy when we research on the relationship of the electric power supply and demand and the national economy development. This article takes the research on the relationship of the supply and demand of Chinese electric power and the economic development as a background, makes a deep research on three aspects: theory method, the empirical analysis and forecast, uses the electric power elastic coefficient method, the industrial structure forecast method as well as the achievement of dynamic economy econometrics, co-integration and error correct model, to carry on the forecast to the Chinese electric power demand (2002-2008), and moreover, uses Granger causality of error correct model to examine causal relation direction of the economic growth and the electric power supply and consumption.The mainly studied content and the research results are follows: 1. As a result of the electric power elastic method's self- limitation, the elasticity coefficient is in itself along with the economic development level and changes unceasingly, thus it will make us neglect the influence of the industrial structure change and the improvement of energy efficiency to the electric power economic relationship, so using this method to forecast electric power demand is not very ideal; single-independent-variable regression forecast method of the industrial structure is based on the situation which does not test the time sequence characteristic and supposes that the sequence characteristic we use in study is steady, namely directly using average figure to test, so these study methods are not good econometric methods, which may causes the longstanding exist problem of false regressive-"fake" result.2. There is a co-integration relationship between Chinese economic growth and the electric power supply and consumption. The Granger causal relation between the Chinese electric power and the economical is a one-way causation which is from the installed capacity and the electricity consumption to the GDP, namely the installed capacity and the electricity consumption growth will impel the growth GDP, the shortage of the installed capacity and the electricity consumption will seriously restrict the growth of GDP, but in turn there is no Granger causal relation between the economic growth to the installed capacity and the electricity consumption, which provides a reasonable explanation to the economic phenomena that Chinese economical growth was in inverse proportion to the energy total consumption between the 1998-2004 period.3. Considering the non-stability character of economic variables, we use one of the econometrics achievements, co-integration and error correct model, to analyze the quantization of the relation between the electric demand and other affecting factors, and to compare the contribution rate of each factor to the electric demand. This method can be used to distinguish the long run equilibrium relation between the variable of the electric demand model and the affecting of long run equilibrium to the short-term fluctuation, and get the result of the long run equilibrium of the electric demand, and moreover we can use the model to forecast the quantity of electric demand which China needs in the future several years. 4. In a short view, the heavy industry development will be the primary factor which affects the electric power demand; in a long view, the adjustment of the industrial structure has brought the huge impact on the electric power demand. Because of the huge cardinal number, population is a great impact factor to the electric demand. Just like the anticipation to the electric power price, it makes price effect on the electric power demand, but it won't make big influence on the electric power demand.