Research On Power Supply And Demand

Electric power industry is the basic and important industry of national economy and social development and is also the public utility which has great relation with people's livelihood. With the increasingly aggravating pressure of environment and resource shortage, the method of building power supply is not suitable for the demand of economy development. Electric power industry is striving for a scientific method to solve the inconsistency between power shortage and booming demand. Therefore, electric power supply and demand is a worthy problem to be thorough study.In this dissertation, the theory of Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is the main idea on studying the relation between electric power supply and demand from the views of resource conservation, and some useful empirical study will be given on the basis of theoretic study. Furthermore, as power demand is the leading signal for power supply resource in electricity market and the demand resource is the higher quality resource than supply resource, so the paper study the problem of electric power supply and demand mainly from the view of power demand side. The mainly work is as following:In the aspect of power supply resource, the paper studies the relation between supply resource and power supply and demand, analyzes the influence by power supply resource in two circumstances of the isolated power system and multi-regions power system, points out the principal influence factors on their relation by index decomposition and modeling analysis, puts forward the optimal goal of electric power supply and demand, makes analysis on how to support maximum growth rate of social electricity consumption with minimum growth rate of generation capacity, actualizes the optimal balance between the growth rate of social electricity consumption and generation capacity.On the basis of giving the definition of power demand resource, the paper study on the method and model to measure the potential of power demand resource. The paper finds the most suitable model to forecast the potential of power demand resource by contrastive analysis. The method on how to realize model is also discussed in econometric software named as Simple.E. The relation between power supply and demand can be optimized after obtaining the potential in power demand resource.Bring forward the thought and method of studying the comprehensive benefit of load management. Put the benefit of load management into two parts: one is load saving benefit and the other is energy conservation benefit. On the basis of quantitative modeling, the energy conservation benefit is further subdivided and each subdivided benefit has been demonstrated in quantitative analysis.Establish a suitable model and method to evaluate the comprehensive benefit of Demand Side Management (DSM). The comprehensive benefit of load management has been fully considered in the model.A new method of policy simulation based on developed intelligent engineering (IE) theory is proposed. The process of policy simulation is classified and described by IE. Based on IE, the developed theory is put forward. Using this theory, a new method of policy simulation is brought forward. The method can not only show the time-order of policy, but also show the different characters of policy. Furthermore, the reasoning process is strengthened to make the simulation more calculable. The paper also put forwards a new solution to solve the problem of multi-policies simulation in different periods.