The Grey-Markov Forecasting Of Grain Yield In Shaanxi Province

China is a large agricultural country, and the food industry as an important component of agriculture, which is important and significant. Since ancient times, the issue of food security has always been a great task to the national economy and the people’s livelihood, and also the basic premise and guarantee of the high-speed development of the national economy, national unity, social harmony and stability. The scientific and accurate forecast of total grain output, and the proper analysis and research to the factors affecting, have an important references on the government departments, not only for developing a macro-control policies of food and related agricultural products but also for agricultural production management departments.This paper is based on statistics, mathematics and economics theories, and considering the complex situation of food production influenced by many uncertain factors, such as environment, climate, policy, etc. As a result of that, on the basis of previous studies, this paper uses an improved Gray-Markov forecasting model to predict the grain output in Shaanxi Province. From the aspect of traditional investment and agricultural policies to research the factors that affect the province’s grain production, and the Gray relational analysis is used to further explore the quantitative relationship between its various main factors by a view of quantitative point. Finally, based on the results of the studies, some policy suggestions are put forward for the relevant departments of Shaanxi province.The simulated results show that the improved Grey-Markov prediction model, which uses the Metabolic GM (1,1) and Weighted Markov transition probability, both can reflect the general trend of grain yield in Shaanxi province, and capture the stochastic volatility of grain yield. The simulated precision is obviously superior to the general Grey-Markov prediction model. The grain yield of Shaanxi between2012-2015respectively are12116000tons,12505000tons and12957000tons, which by this model.Gray correlation analysis showed that, the purchase price of agricultural and sideline products, the effective irrigation area are the most important factors effecting grain yield in Shaanxi province.The relevant departments of the government can formulate the related policy to ensure food supply and demand balance in Shaanxi Province.