Research On Grain Yield Forecasting Based On Grey Model

As an important component of agriculture, food industry is of great significance. Since ancient times, no food,no stable society. The level of food yield is highly related to situation of country's political stability and unity, to develop China's socialist modernization construction, and to build a socialist harmonious society. Meanwhile, the safety of our grain yield is one of crucial method to counter international food crisis. It will be useful for government department to formulate macro-control food policy by forecasting grain yield.Based on theories and methods including statistics, predictions,and agriculture economics, this paper appraises researches on food yield forecast at home and aboard, reviews historical periods of grain produce, analysis situation on several political districts and main food produce regions status in quo from existing data, compares with representative countries on food cultivars, forecasts china's grain yield after setting up gray models and testing such ones. Finally, with the introduction on enhancing food produce ability from developed countries and regions, plenty of advices are made to improve our nation's grain yield.According to this paper, rice wheat and maize are considered as the largest parts of food species. From the data forecasted, We can easily find that Chinese food yield will still keep rising. Food yield totally will reach to 56501.61MT in 2012, while rice to 19673.96MT, wheat to 15124.46MT, maize to 20316.32MT. From a long-term perspective, to increase food production, We should not rely solely on the expansion of grain sown area, or yield level per square, but rather to focus on how to improve the overall grain production capacity level.