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The Research On The Forecasting Of Grain Yield In Hunan Province Based On Gray System Theory

Posted on:2013-03-14Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S L LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330371473964Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Agriculture is the basic industries of the stability of the people and tranquility. Asa country with a population of 1.3 billion, China is a large grain production and grainconsumption country, grain security has great political and economic significance.Hunan Province, as a major agricultural province, the grain yield plays an importantrole in the country. However, in recent years, the agriculture structure is contradictand outstanding in Hunan Province, and the management ways are extensive,farmland shrinking is serious, and the grain farmer are not enthusiastic for the grainproduction, which make the grain yield has a declining trend, so the grain yieldanalysis and forecasting have a very important theoretical and practical significance.As an application research, this paper will mainly focus on the production ofgrain and yield prediction in Hunan Province. In the first, analyze the current situationof grain production, and put forward the grain production of Hunan province is facingthe farmland water conservancy infrastructure which is weak, land problem, thefarmers’enthusiasm for planting grain drops and other problems, Then by using thetheory of gray system model to analyze the influence factors of grain production inHunan Province, get the sown area of grain crops, irrigated area and agriculture frompersonnel for the three most important factors influencing grain production in HunanProvince. Then, according to the Hunan grain yield data from 2000 to 2010 years, usepredictive models of the gray system theory to predict the empirical analysis of grainyield, on the basis of common GM (1,1) model for predicting grain yield, using threekinds of optimized model for prediction, find the gray prediction model is good formiddle and long term prediction in Hunan Province, the prediction accuracy isrelatively high, and compare the growth rate of the predicted values obtained by thevarious kinds gray prediction model, contact the actual situation of grain production,choose the moving average optimization model with the slowest growth and hashigher forecast precision to calculate the final forecasting result, and found that thegrain yield in Hunan province shows ascendant trend in the future. Finally, accordingto the forecast results, combine with the main problems and factors about foodproduction in Hunan Province, puts forward the countermeasures for the developmentand stability of grain production in Hunan Province, including: strengthen theagricultural infrastructure construction for improving the comprehensive agricultural production capacity; strengthen the protection of farmland and ensure that the areasown to grain; increase the policy support for grain farmers, to protect farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain; optimize agricultural structure, improve the quality ofpersonnel; rely on the progress of science and technology, to enhance the grainproduction capacity of technical support; the government should strengthen theguidance for the grain production.
Keywords/Search Tags:Hunan grain production, Gray system theory, Grain yield forecast
PDF Full Text Request
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