The Analysis On Economic Fluctuation Characteristics And Formation Path In China

In2007the U.S. credit crisis triggered global economic shock, once again,evocative of economic cycle research of enthusiasm. Economic cycle is the topic ofthe oldest problem, and has a strong frontier, in western economics one hundred yearsof research history, economic cycle is long and sustained attention. The theory abouteconomic cycle innovation is emerging in endlessly, and related measurementtechnology is developing rapidly. The theoretical workers and government policymakers not only focus on how to make a country’s economic rapid development oflasting, and hope can smooth running of the economic health. So the economic cycleto the analysis of characteristics of the fluctuation and the formation mechanism ofmacroeconomic policies formulated for has an important meaning.This article mainly from the two aspects of China’s economic cycle research theproblem, one is Chinese economic cycle fluctuation character experience analysis;2itis measure of supply and demand of China’s economic fluctuations path contributionand influence. Based on the above two research topics, the article is divided into sixchapters spread out:The first chapter introduction, this paper introduces the background of theresearch significance, thought and innovation points; The second chapter includeseconomic theory and literature review two parts, the article to the western economiccycle on the cause of formation economic theory were summarized, and the economiccycle and marxist theory are compared. In the literature review, this essay from fiveresearch subjects of economic cycle respect Chinese and foreign documents arereviewed; The third chapter of economic cycle research trend of fluctuations incommon use in the decomposition technique has summarized; The fourth chapter ison China’s economic cycle characteristics of experience analysis, this article first theHP filtering on macro economic fluctuations on China the main variable trenddecomposition, then use standard variance correlation coefficient and the jet lag ofthese variables cycle the volatility and the coordinated composition dynamic analysis;Chapter5is China’s economic fluctuation of supply shock path analysis, based on theBlanchard&Quah (1989) proposed a revision of the SVAR model, declaring analysisof supply and demand of China’s economic cycle of the contribution and shock wave paths; The sixth chapter is part suggestions, according to the article concluded putsforward relevant policy suggestions.The article concluded basically has the following two points:(1)Through China’s economic cycle to the characteristics of the experienceanalysis found that: in the volatility, most (16) the larger than the output volatilityindex, only in consumption and employment index less than output volatility. In theassociation move sex, in addition to employment population and the first industryemployment population two index present the cycle, the rest of the indexes show thecyclical. The inverse of the employment of Chinese cyclical phenomenon mainlyreflects in the first industry, the second and third industry employment all has thecyclical.(2)By constructing a revision of the supply and demand model SVAR explore theimpact to China path found: the output of the main supply shock wave to because,supply shock on output have the lasting positive influence. Demand shocks on theoutput has the positive influence on the short term, and a reversal in the sixth year ofoutput produced the negative influence of negative;3. The employment of thefluctuation of more than70%due to demand shock, and the positive impact onemployment demand produce sustained positive influence, supply shock generallyproduce sustained employment of the negative.