Modeling And Empirical Analysis Of Chinese Energy Demand

The energy is the human society development essential material base, any country or area social economy development must depend on the energy. Since the reform and open policy, along with our country economy rapid development, has assumed the tendency to the energy demand which rises suddenly, the contradictory of the energy supply and demand day by day is also prominent. Therefore, in order to satisfy the sustainable, stable and healthy development of our country economy, the safe and reliable energy strategy also has become vital and urgent.The former energy demand analysis method may be classified two kinds approximately: One is the energy demand forecast analysis method, another one is the energy demand factor analysis method. For the energy demand forecast analysis method, because economic phenomena itself quite is complex, the effect of the sole method which enhances the precision of the energy demand forecast is not all obvious. For the energy demand factor analysis method, it often establishes the model by some kind of economic theory or by understanding the economic activities, but resting on the economic theory or the understanding of the economic activities to establish the model, the subjectivity has existed in modeling itself, which causes the deviation of the analysis result because of insufficient comprehensive. Since the 20th century 70's the non-classics econometrics have developed for solve this problem to provide the very good theory and the method foundation; Then the key point of the paper is the empirical research based on the non-classics econometrics to our country's energy demand question. Concerning the question of the energy demand forecast analysis method, the paper mainly adopts the tendency extrapolation and the ARMA combination forecast model to settle. Concerning the question of the energy demand factor analysis method, the paper mainly uses the Co-integration and Error Correction model for answering the question. Finally our country's energy developmental strategy and the corresponding suggestion based on the empirical analysis is proposed.