Research On Financial Risk Prediction Of Listed Companies Based On The Theory Of Enter-prise Life Cycle

In the economic globalization times, the market competition is fierce day by day,as individual, the company faced with the risk of dying anytime. The company by agood financial situation gradually developed into financial conditions deteriorate is agradual process, the information in enterprise financial statements are reflect more orless, according to these indexes set up a reasonable and effective financial risk earlywarning model, on the one hand, it can help enterprise management to monitor thefinancial risk of the enterprise change process, on the other hand, it can provide clearand effective information to users, avoid loss caused by information asymmetry. Inthe different phases of the life cycle, enterprise faced the financial risk is different, so,construct the professional financial risk early warning model for the growth and ma-turity enterprise alone has great significance. This article unioned enterprise life cycletheory and financial risk pre-warning theory, established the special financial riskprewarning model for growth enterprise, to improve the model’s prediction ability andaccuracy, help extend the life of enterprise. This paper use industry growth rate me-thod to division the listed manufacturing companies life cycle, According to the lifecycle of the division, selected the enterprise in growth special established financialrisk early warning model, and inspection accuracy of predicted results in internal andexternal the sample respectively.This paper get the following conclusions：(1)according to the inspection effectfrom two development-oriented fund:South high growth fund and Chinese advantagesgrowing fund which have good market performance, Use Industry growth rate methoddivision listed companies life cycle is reasonable and reliable and can be used in thedivision in the study of enterprise life cycle.(2) The life cycle of listed companies inChina are most in growth period and mature period, and are mostly growth and ma-turity alternate exists, the duration is longer than recession. The enterprise were im-plemented ST are mostly in growth period, rates as high as53%, This suggests that enterprises which in growth period were faced more risk from many aspects, Man-agement are more likely to make the wrong decision-making, the company more eas-ily to be "ST".(3) Based on the Lifecycle theory and Survival analysis theory estab-lished financial risk early warning model has good prediction effect, the precision ofprediction model were above90%both inside and outside.(4) Eight variables intoearly warning model: working capital ratio of total net assets, degree of financial le-verage, earnings per share, retained earnings than assets, cash flow rate and accountpayable turnover rate are protection factor, the higher the value, the financial risk ofthe enterprise is lower, Fixed assets ratio and price value rate are risk factors, thehigher the value, the financial risk of the enterprise is higher.