Study On The Rice Production In Hubei Province On The Basis Of Agricultural Technology Extension Efficiency

Hubei province is an important productive base of grains in China, rice planting areas in Hubei share8%of the total rice planting areas in China, the yield occupies10%of the total rice yield in China, rice production in Hubei has an important place in China. Rice is the staple food of our people for survive, with the development of industrialization, the industry and the food processing industry using rice as the master raw material have more an more needs on rice, but rice production in Hubei have a slow pace of growth in recent years, on the whole, rice in Hubei is in short supply. With the development of agriculture, the proportion of traditional inputs approach reasonable, under the limited land and other natural resources conditions, increasing agricultural input in technology is the only way to increase the rice production for contenting the increasing demand of the society.In this situation, learn the current situation of agricultural technology extension in Hubei, analysis the contribution rate of the efficiency of agricultural technology extension to the production of rice, find the main factors which influence the efficiency of agricultural technology extension and the production of rice, have a very important significance for studying how to improve the production of rice in Hubei.On the basis of the correlation theories of agricultural technology extension and agricultural economic growth, this paper first analysis the current situation of rice production and agricultural technology extension, comprehensive evaluate the efficiency of agricultural technology extension, then use the multiple linear regression method get the contribution rate of the efficiency of agricultural technology extension to the production of rice, at last use the system dynamics method deeply dissect the relation of rice production in Hubei and the efficiency of agricultural technology extension、labor force、fixed capital and the rate of effective irrigation, establish a simper system dynamics model, forecast the rice production in Hubei from now to the year of2015, and analysis the influence of the rate of labor force、the rate of fixed capital increment and the rate of effective irrigation areas to the efficiency of agricultural technology extension and rice production, and then offer some suggestions for improving rice production in Hubei.This paper draw several conclusion at last, first, the efficiency of agricultural technology extension is36.69%in the year of2010, is double that of1990, but in recent years the increasing trend is slowly. Second, the contribution rate of the efficiency of agricultural technology extension to the rice production in Hubei is23.2%, and the labor force is-9.8%, the fixed capital is5.2%and the rate of effective irrigation is13.1%, the contribution rate of the efficiency of agricultural technology extension to the rice production in Hubei is maximum among them. Third, the change of the rate of the efficiency of agricultural technology extension arouse by the change of the rate of labor force、the change of fixed capital increment and the change of the rate of effective irrigation areas all very sensitive, the change of the rice production arouse by the change of the rate of labor force and the change of fixed capital increment first is not sensitive then is sensitive as time goes on, the change of the rice production arouse by the change of the rate of effective irrigation areas is not sensitive.