Study On The Influence Factor And Forecasting Of Residential Commodity Price Changes In Shanghai City

In China，the commercial housing prices has kept increasing in recent years, the residentialhouse prices are staggering increase in Yangtze River region of which Shanghai is the center, theresidential house prices in Yangtze Rive are now the highest in the country, Shanghai is theleading role of the Yangtze River, The issue of Shanghai residential house prices has attractedbroad attention as a major economic and social problem.This paper based on the relevant commodity residential housing prices theory, making astudy of residential real estate market situation in Shanghai firstly. The analysis believes that themomentum of the supply and demand in the overall housing market in Shanghai (2002-2010) isflourishing. From the comparative view of supply and demand situation, the growth rate ofhousing demand is higher than the supply, but the housing prices keep rising. Secondly, the papertake a method of qualitative analysis to study the main factors caused fluctuations of commercialhousing price in Shanghai. Based on the analysis, the paper takes a multiple linear regressionmodel and principal components analysis to study the quantitative relationship between thehousing prices and the influencing factors. The analysis result show that the first three principalcomponent could explain90.68%information, the population, per capita disposable income,investment in commercial residential, price level have positive influence to the housing prices,while the bank interest rates, completed area of residential have negative influence to the housingprices. Finally, the paper use a Gray-Marof prediction model to predict housing price value offuture stages, and the study shows that: Grey-Marof prediction accuracy is better, we can drawna prediction that the average price of commercial housing in2011,2012is separately18691.768、21640.122yuan per square meter.The paper attempts to explore the factors affecting the trend of housing price，and predictthe trend of housing price in Shanghai. We hope that the research on the Shanghai municipalgovernment can play a certain reference role in effectively regulating the housing market, at thesame time we hope the paper can also help consumers to judge the trend of commercial housingprice, and provide a theoretical basis for the current or future purchase behaviors.