The Crop Yield Estimation And Evaluation For Potential Grain Productivity In North Korea

As the the world highly concerned about country, the food security issues of NorthKorea also attracted wide attention by the international communities. In this paper, afteranalyzing the relations between actual crop yields and critical period of growthhalf-moon NDVI of rice and maize in1995-2005based on the data from GIMMS, thevariables of dynamic yield estimation models for the crops were determined, and the modelswere established to estimate the food production between1982-2005. According to themeteorological data which were observed at27meteorological stations in the past30years,the paper calculated the climate productivity in North Korea with ThornthwaiteMemorial model and select some indexes which can objectively reflect the food securitysituation of North Korea to build food security evaluation system aiming at reveal the foodsecurity of crop estimation and the food security of the potential productivity, it can providetheory evidences for international assistance and emergency. The results show that: the linearfitted equation between the NDVI cumulant of second half month of September and the riceproduction is good, it can be the yield estimation model of rice. The linear fitted equationbetween the NDVI cumulant of first half month of October and the maize production was theyield estimation model of maize. The comparison of the crop yields estimated by the modelsand the actual crop yields showed that the relative errors of estimated yields were nearly12%.The crop yields estimated by the models were volatile and the crop yields in these years whennatural disaster happened were relatively low. The crop potential productivity was high in theSorth and was low in the North, the value of potential productivity was lower in the disasterhappened year and outliers appears in partial districts in the North Korea. The ratio of cropestimation yield and crop potential productivity were mostly between10%to20%andindividual year was up to30%. It showed that the North Korea’s food production still hadmuch room for improvement. Finally, This study is to assess the status of food security ofNorth Korea from the year1982to2006. An integrated index of food security, including thefood self-sufficiency rate, per capita share of grain, grain production levels, per capita arableland, fluctuation coefficient in grain production was constructed for assessing quantitativelythe status of the province’s food security by taking the coefficient of food security assessmentmethod. Based on the facts before, the results of evaluation revealed that the North Korea’food was unsafe in all years except the year of1990, and the year of1986,1988,2000were inthe state of critical unsafe, it can be seen that the food security of North Korea was notoptimistic. But it was overall safe in the ideal situation, the maximum grain yield produced inNorth Korea can sufficiently met the needs for Korean nationalty people. It was safe for NorthKorea’s potential crop productivity and the food production can increase deeply.