The Analysis Of Trends Of Countryside Surplus Labor Transfer:Theory And Empirical

The research background of this paper is the problem of labor shortage which happened since2004.The problem is more and more serious in the southeast coastal area, and it makes many enterprise can not run normally. For this kind of hot spot phenomenon, many scholars gave a high degree of attention, and analysis it from different angles. The reasons of the labor shortage can be analysis from multiple perspectives. This article argues that "labor shortage" is just a characterization of the new trend of countryside surplus labor transfer, and the article thinks that the direct cause of labor shortage is the countryside surplus labor transfer.This paper based on the theory of Marx which researches the population. From Marx’s view we can see that the research on the laws of the population can react the problem of production mode, and then to be further research economic problems and social problems which based on the laws of the population. Labor transfer is a process with economic structure evolution and social change, so it is a great value to do further study of the population problem in whole or part. It can be said that based on the theory of Marx the study of countryside surplus labor transfer must base on the Industrialization level, the process of economic structure evolution and the social change which in the same social process.This study of this paper has its unique realistic significance. The countryside surplus labor transfer happened in the endemic background and special conditions which has special form and characteristics. Along with the rapid economic development of our country, the reform of policy system and other social change, what happens in the trends of countryside surplus labor transfer? Whether this new trend continue or not? Whether this new trend can bring a benign circulation for the economic development in the influence of political system, economic system and the social system? These problems to be further discussed in the field.These research methods of this paper have analysis synthesis, experience of induction and the overall analysis method. The paper analysis the trends of countryside surplus labor transfer in three aspects which are Agricultural internal industry shift, Agriculture to non-agricultural industry shift and Area transfer with research methods. And the Final conclusion is that the industry shift and the Regional transfer are the main way to transfer. In long-term it has become the trends that countryside surplus labors transfer from the central and western regions to the east and from the first industry to second and third industry. But in recent years, the area transfer of migrant workers appeared backflow, the number of migrant workers worked in the eastern region has reduced, the number of migrant workers transfer to Central regions and western regions has increased. And the proportion of the Migrant workers which work in the province near to leave in Central regions and western regions has increased obviously. Between the three industries, countryside surplus labor transfer formed a new trend which is transfer from the first industry to the third industry directly. This paper analysis the new trends used "Reasoning-tension" theory and Proposition of Gunnar Myrdal in the aspects of the new road of industrialization, Urbanization level, Policy factors, The unperfected social security system, the surge of city life cost and the household registration system.This paper has two innovations. The first is analysis the labor market from a macroscopic angle, rather than the analysis of Individual employment. This paper analysis the trend of countryside surplus labor transfer which is concerned and representative, and through the analysis it can analysis the labor market employment trends with point to the comprehensive, through the analysis it can reveals problems of labor market and economic development process. The second, this paper applicants theory comprehensive, and combines Development economics, Institutional economics with Labor economics to explain employment trends comprehensive. The paper put suggestions forward economy and the development of the society in the angle of countryside surplus labor transfer, in order to promote economic and social to develop which is expected and to make it’s Meaningful to develop Chinese economic.