The Research On The Risk Transmission Between Our Country Commercial Bank And The Adiustment Of Real Estate

The real estate industry is closely related to the economic and people’s daily life, and government policy will greatly influence the real estate markets. Experience from the financial crisis occurred in other countries tells us that it is important to avoid the risk of banking result from the real estate adjustment. The path of risk transfer played a crucial role in these crisis.The bank loans are still a major route of the real estate corporate finance, and the first part of this article discusses China’s real estate development and the current situation of real estate corporate finance. And then, the article summarizes the causes, characteristics, and revelation of the financial crisis breaking out in Japan, Thailand and the United States. The third part focuses on the risk transfers from the adjustment of the real estate to commercial banks from a theoretical perspective. The real estate policy has a direct impact on the real estate market primarily from production, transaction taxes, and market supply and demand, above on which the article thoroughly analyzes the transfer path of real estate risk, and summarizes that risk transfers through direct and indirect paths. The direct path includes credit path, collateral path, personal mortgage loan path, etc.; indirect path includes real estate related industries path, hidden loans path, real estate trust and financial innovation path, psychological expectations path, and hot money path. The article also analyses private lending crisis in Wenzhou as a case study. The fourth part of the article is the empirical research of the risk transfers from the real estate adjustment to commercial bank based on VAR model to get significant conclusions. At last, the article puts forward some policy recommendations for the adjustment of the real estate market as well as the control of commercial banks risk.