The Commercial Bank Real Estate Credit Risk Research

Credit risk is one of the main risks of the financial industry, which also is themajor risk that commercial banks need to face. Therefore strengthen credit riskmanagement has become an eternal topic of commercial banks. The global financialcrisis that triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has a certain warning onChina’s financial markets and real estate development. Credit assets are major sourceof revenue for commercial banks, and commercial banks have taken the real estateloans as high quality assets. But in recent years, for bubble of China’s real estate moreand more prominent, if commercial banks underestimated the real estate credit risk, itis possible to suffer the huge financial losses. So, making the study and analysis on thecommercial bank real estate credit risk has a significant role and practical significancefor protection the safety of commercial bank credit funds, the prevention and control ofreal estate credit risk, and thus maintaining the stable and secure operation of banks.Firstly, the background and significance of the real estate credit risk ofcommercial banks were introduced briefly in the paper. On the basis of consulting thelarge number of documents, domestic and foreign research present situation wereanalyzed and summarized, and important significance of learning from the foreignmature theory and risk assessment model of real estate credit risk managementresearch was proposed. And then, the meaning and features of the real estate credit riskof commercial banks were analyzed. The formation and conduction process of realestate credit risk of commercial banks were described, and through analysis andcomparison a variety of methods of commercial bank real estate credit risk measure,then the Logistic model was chose as this commercial bank real estate credit riskassessment model for China’s national conditions. For the real estate credit status quo of China’s commercial banks, a careful analysis of the problems of the commercial bankreal estate credit from credit risk sources was given. On the basis of China’scommercial banks credit risk evaluation index system, a set of commercial bank realestate credit risk evaluation index system was created, which was used to buildcommercial banks Logistic credit risk measurement model for the real estate business.The real estate credit risk assessment model of commercial banks was verified bySPSS17.0software. The output shows that the model has good discrimination ability,and it helps to commercial banks make the right judgments, assess anddecision-making to response according to the real estate corporate default probabilityof occurrence. The model can effectively control the real estate credit risk, reduce therisk of loss, and ensure the safety of credit funds and the stable operation of thefinancial system. Finally, synthesize the previous summary and analysis, the countermeasures were explored from three different perspectives of the commercial banks,government, real estate companies.