The Research To The Inlfuence Factors Of Taiyuan Commercial Real Estate Investment And The Development Trends

The development of commercial real estate is microcosm of the city’s economicdevelopment. In recent years, The government puts forward a series real estate regulationpolicy continuously which inhibits the growth of residential real estate market madness.Investment demand is still strong, however, more and more developers turn to commercialreal estate to find a way out, and couse real estate investment boom. Experts believe thatoverinvestment will only create a "bubble", cause serious harm to regional economy, becausecommercial real estate market does not exist rigid demand and the investment risk is muchhigher than the residential real estate. As the capital of Shanxi Province, in recent years, theeconomy of Taiyuan developments fast and urban construction pace speeds up which willundoubtedly inject great vitality to the development of commercial real estate, also provides agood opportunity for city commercial real estate investment. Therefore, it has vitalsignificance to research influence factors of Taiyuan commercial real estate investment scaleand forecast short-term trends and determine the reasonable scale of investment incommercial real estate.This thesis mainly uses principal component analysis and multiple linear regressionmodel and ARIMA model to find the influence factors of commercial real estate investmentscale, and forecast the development trend of Taiyuan city commercial real estate investment.At last the thesis puts forward suggestions for the relevant government departments andenterprises.This thesis takes the scale of investment in commercial real estate in Taiyuan city as theresearch object. Firstly, studied the related concepts and theories of the commercial real estateinvestment scale and analyzes the present situation and existing problems of Taiyuancommercial real estate. Secondly, find out the influence factors of commercial real estateinvestment according to the related theories based on which establishes an index system of influencing factors. Thirdly, analyzes the influence factors of commercial real estateinvestment with principal component analysis and forecast the commercial real estateinvestment scale in next three years with multiple linear regression model and ARIMA model.It conclude that there are four main factors, namely the level of city development, localcommercial real estate supply and demand levels, local government level and the standard ofliving of local residents which influence the commercial real estate investment scale andcommercial real estate industry in the next few years will get rapid development and the scaleof their investment in the short term will present a rising trend. At last, puts forward relatedsuggestions for the local government and real estate enterprises to keep the good developmentof commercial real estate in the future according to the results of the study.