The Reasearch Of Risk Assessment In Large-scale Commercial Real Estate Investment Based On The Gray Synthesis Evaluation

Recent years, under the background of the domestic government’s increasingmacro-control over the resident real estate, it becomes more and more difficult fordevelopers to gain a superabundant profit from the dwelling houses. Due to itsabundant profit, the commercial real estate gradually turns into a new investment hotspot. However, as a compound shape of the real estate integrating real estatedevelopment with commercial operation, the domestic developers generally lacks apackage of relatively mature operation pattern for the commercial real estate, then theblind investment brings about huge risk. For a large commercial real estate project (aninvestment scale excessing70,000㎡) developer, the project’s success or failure evenat times, plays a crucial role in and has a decisive influence on an enterprise’s fate andmarket survival capacity, so a reinforce of the project’s investment risk managementand a rise of its success rate emerges as an pressing priority.This article complies with and caters for the need of large-scale commercial realestate risk management and control, conducts a research on investment riskidentification and evaluation methods over large-scale commercial real estate. First, thearticle focuses on the analysis of the different characteristics between the large-scalecommercial real estate investment and common dwelling house. And combining withcase, it analyzes the characteristics and application prospect of the three investmentpatterns, namely “Property sales patterm”、“Rent Combination patterm”、“Just for rent-Not for sale patterm” respectively.Secondly, it adopts hierarchical holographic modeling（HHM）to build the HHMstructure of risk identification from multiple dimensions and perspectives, quite systematically and comprehensively identifies the59types of investment riskregarding the large-scale commercial real estate. By virtue of adopting various theorymethods, such as Questionnaire, Literature analysis, Frequency statistics, Delphi etc,combining with the6principles determined by index, this thesis erects the riskevaluation index system of large-scale commercial real estate investment.Meanwhile,it introduces Grey System Theory into the risk evaluation of large-scale commercialreal estate, integrates with Analytic Hierarchy Process (APH) and thus erects the GraySynthesis Evaluation Model for large-scale commercial real estate investment risks.This method could efficiently offset the familiar sample deficiency and datainsufficiency, hence should be a simple, suitable evaluation method with a strongoperability.Finally, the world city.pedestrian street of Optics Valley, serving as a practicalexample from wuhan province, is chosen to conduct a detail analysis and survey todemonstrated the reliability and validity of the gray comprehensive evaluation modelthis article argus.The research result of this thesis ought to be of good practical significance andvalue to the enterprises’ prophase decision-making and operation management toinvest in commercial real estate, also is expected to give a scant help to the commercialreal estate industry’s healthy development.