The Study Of The Fluctuations Trend Of The Tertiary Industry And The Linkage With The National Economy In China

The tertiary industry, the service sector in our general sense, the scope isexpanding with the connotation enriching in this industry constantly and the industrialstructure improving gradually nowadays in our society. The level of development ofthe tertiary industry has become an important symbol to measure the level ofmodernization and competitiveness of a country or a region worldwide. As far asChina’s concerned, with the rapid development of Chinese national economy andpeople’s living standards increasing, which is compared with the other two industries,the developing pace and growth in the proportion of the tertiary industry is becomingmore and more prominent. So more and more scholars are concerned this newcomerindustry and study the effects of its rapid development to other parts of the nationaleconomy.Firstly we have a general description of the overall performance of the tertiaryindustry in the national economy, with the data from the China Statistical Yearbook1978-2011. With the annual growth rate data and the increasing value data, trendcomparison selected found that in the tertiary industry the proportion of the addedvalue is growing year by year. Because of the increase in the share of the tertiaryindustry, fluctuations in the growth rate of Chinese national economy becomesstabilized. So we suspect that the rapid development of the tertiary industry has a rolein boosting of for the growth of the national economy and inhibition of the volatilityof economy at the same time. For the analysis of tertiary industry within the industry,we can learn from the classification of the China Statistical Yearbook and the tertiary industry is divided into the Transportation&Storage and Postal Services (short forTransportation Services), Wholesale&Retail Trade, Accommodation and FoodIndustry, the Financial Sector, Real Estate, and Other Types of Industrial, the sixcategories. Selecting the six categories of industry with the data of growth rate andcomparing with the tertiary ones, with the further sub-period (divided into two stagesfrom1978to1993as the first one, and1994to2011secondly), we can investigatethat the correlativity between the six categories of industrial growth rate and thetertiary industry growth. Considering the relationship of the growth rate and basingon the reference industry total proportion to the degree of contribution and relevance,we elect four parts, Transportation Services, Wholesale&Retail Trade, FinancialSector and the Real Estate Industry, as the representative industry. Instead of thetertiary industry in general, they participate in the analysis and comparison to thelinkage relationship with the national economy.Light of the existing literature, the relationship research of the tertiary industryand all or some parts of the national economy is very rich. So we screen from thetertiary industry the four representative industries to research and analysis of thelinkage relationship to the national economy. This paper selects the GDP growth rateand the growth rate of the secondary industry as an indicator of the national economyfor the study of the relationship between the four representative industries and theformer two separately. We use the VAR Model and learn the linkage relationship andthe interaction resulting from impulse response function and variance decomposition.The four representative industries have focused on different effects. As the largestsingle type of industry effects in the tertiary industry accounted for, the effects ofTransportation Services has the largest series of mutual influence and linkage change,both for the growth of the GDP and the second industry of the four. Wholesale andRetail Trade impact of GDP growth more prominent, but the effect of the Real EstateIndustry is more obvious to the growth of the secondary industry. Especially the Financial Industry has the opposite shock effects for the two confirming thesignificance of its economic weathervane. The above representative industrial linkagerelationship and its significance for the national economy also reflects the tertiaryindustry overall getting great significance for the development of the nationaleconomy as a whole.Most of the research literature about the tertiary industry and relevant ones withshowing the status of the development of the tertiary industry is to use a single total,incremental, or the growth rate of the tertiary industry indicators. These dataindicators seem to be a bit thin to the characterization of the tertiary industry. Thisarticle tries to explore a new method through the more rigorous scientific method, themethod of climate index calculation. There are more detailed characterization of thetrend of the development of the tertiary industry, richer indicators contains content atthe same time, as well as more timely and accurate feedback trends information withthe relationship of other national economic data. The empirical results also confirmedthat the method of preparation of the climate index is feasible and effective. And thispaper the preparation of the tertiary industry consensus climate index has a strongexplanatory power, which in the sample interval is more accurate for momentumcharacterizes the extent of the development of the tertiary industry. While thecomparative analysis with the macro-economic indicators of the coincident indexproves that the tertiary industry has pulling effect and volatility inhibition to themacro-economic growth once again.