Empirical Analysis And Forecast Of Demand And Supply Of Fixed Assets Investment Of Jilin Province

In recent years, along with the implementation of the strategy to revitalize the northeastold industrial base, the economy of Jilin Province has been increased rapidly. The process ofindustrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization speed up, and demand of fixedassets investment grow continuously. However, the construction of financial ecologicenvironment in Jilin Province is relatively backward and the financing channels are narrow.These problems lead to more and more gap between supply and demand of fixed assetsinvestment. This paper aims to reveal the future possible financing gap by forecasting demandand supply of fixed assets investment of Jilin Province in2012-2020. According to this, thepaper carries on exploitation of different source channels of fixed assets investment anddesigns the balanced solution for funds. It has important realistic meaning to ensure the steadypropulsion of social and economic construction of Jilin Province.This paper deals with the study and forecast of demand and supply of fixed assetsinvestment of Jilin Province by empirical research methods. At first, through establishing firstorder logarithmic regression equation including autoregressive residuals, the predicted totaldemand of fixed assets investment of Jilin Province in2012-2020is2334billion yuan andyear all increase rate is14.48%which is lower than that of the eleventh five-year plan.Secondly, based on different source channels of fixed assets investment, the paper usesexponential smooth model with seasonal decomposition and forecasts supply of fixed assetsinvestment of Jilin Province. In the constant economy condition and policy environment, thepredicted total supply of fixed assets investment of Jilin Province in2012-2020is2106billionyuan and year all increase rate is11.9%. Finally, according to the prediction on the changes ofsocioeconomic development and policy environment of Jilin Province in prediction term, thepaper separately disinters the potential of fixed assets investment supply in four channels:government budget investment, domestic loan, utilized foreign capital, funds raised by oneselfand other investment. The paper also draws up the balanced solution for funds supply anddemand of fixed assets investment.