Analysis And Forecast Of Fixed Assets Investment Demands In Hebei Province

Fixed assets investment is a crucial factor to promote economic growth and optimizeeconomic structure. Therefore, the demand forecast of fixed assets investment isbeneficial for countries and regions to control investment scale as well as improve theinvestment structure so that pushing effects of economic driven by investment couldbe efficiency and sustainable.The article discusses the influence factors of fixed assets investment includingeconomic growth, bank rate, savings deposit, value-added tax transition, etc.Meanwhile, the mechanism of factors’ action is studied according to related theoryand data. In the article, two forecast methods as multiple linear regression model andARIMA model are applied and developed. As to specific application in Hebeiprovince, the article discusses the relationship between demands of fixed assetsinvestment and corresponding influence factors like economic growth, savings deposit,industrial structure, urbanization, main projects investment, and forecasts the demandsof fixed assets investment with two models after which the results are compared.When founding the multiple linear regression model, the article cuts out data from1981to2002and selects independent variables with stepwise regression, base onwhich the model is founded between fixed assets investment and last fixed assetsinvestment, incremental deposits. When model is applied to forecast the fixed assetsinvestment between2003and2012, the predictive value fits actual value well, anderror is analyzed. Combined with exponent smoothing, the article forecasts demandsof fixed assets investment from2013to2017in Hebei province.As to ARIMA model, the article establishes time series with fixed assets investmentbetween1981and2002in Hebei province and found ARIMA(8,2,3) through varies oftests like stability and relativity. When applied to forecast, predictive value the modelarrives fits actual value well. Afterwards, the article analyzes the reason of error indifferent sides and forecasts the demands of fixed assets investment between2013and2017. Finally, the article compares these two models.