| Commercial housing market has been an important component of the real estate market since housing reform in1998. In recent years, the extremely rapid growth of urban housing price has draw extensive attention of various circles of society, and has paid much attention by government at all levels. Government makes policies according to cyclical fluctuations of market, investment and speculation active degree. Impact of the implemented policies and their advantages and disadvantages are supposed to evaluate. Market cyclical fluctuations and forecast of housing price changes in the near future could offer some helpful information for households and real estate developers to make decisions. This research could provide some helps for each participant to grasp the operation rules of cyclical fluctuations in the real estate market.Housing price cyclical fluctuations theory based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition was put forward in this study after theories and literatures were reviewed. In this theory, the main factors of housing price cyclical fluctuations were put together. Ensemble EMD, BP multi-breakpoints detection algorithm, econometrics and statistical technology, event study, artificial intelligence methods were applied comprehensively. New-built commercial housing price in Hangzhou was the data to carry out the empirical researches, and the four questions were tried to answer. They are:the causes and mechanism of urban housing price cyclical fluctuations; the impact degree brought by financial crisis and some significant control policies; how to measure the degree of investment and speculation; the ideal model for short-term urban housing price forecast. The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) Time series of housing price can be expressed as the sum impact degrees of economic fundamentals, significant events and short-term market disequilibrium, and their contribution ratios of variance of the housing prices is59.51%,22.10%and18.39%respectively. Economic fundamentals is the most important factor, its correlation between housing prices is as high as65%.(2) There exists a cycle of3years in the commercial housing market in Hangzhou, which is consistent to the real estate market in Beijing and Shanghai. The reason for that is real estate construction cycle is about3years.(3) The2008financial crisis sent down housing price in Hangzhou4912.5yuan/m2averagely, and then it rebound upward3759.0yuan/m2later. Control policies dominant with monetary finance in2007brought negative impact on the price just after implemented, and it reached its maximal negative value of1704.99/m2in week13, which was in line with the control expectation. But after week13, the market reaction reversed. The impact degree rose from442.1/m2to1630.2yuan/m2, which brought an increase of2072.3yuan/m2. Control policies in2010, the "11regulations’’and "new10rules" brought a decrease of2998.6yuan/m2on the housing price comprehensively. Appropriate time points were chosen to implement.(4) The impact mode of financial crisis on urban housing price complied with the crisis response pattern proposed by Looney in2003.(5) Measure index and measure methodology of investment and speculation degree are proposed in this study. The appearance probability of investment and speculation is about a quarter in the commercial housing market in Hangzhou, and its impact degree accounts for9.5%to24.52%of the whole housing price. According to the empirical results of investment and speculation degree of the8sub-markets in Hangzhou, Zhijiang plate is the highest, reached0.4252; Xiasha plate was the lowest, was only0.1102.(6) EEMD-SVR-SVR integrated forecasting model can be used to short-term housing price forecast. The relative forecasting error is5.28%, and the absolute forecasting error is1022.2yuan/m2. Forecasting directions of housing prices ups and downs were all correct during the forecasting period after deducting the cases of abnormal events. |
PDF Full Text Request