Uncertainty Analysis Of K Transformer Substatio Construc-tion Project Financial Evaluation

Economic evaluation research is a important part of the planning and construction. Withthe high-speed economic development, economic returns is paid more and more attention.Besides technical, validity, reliability, we pay more attention on economic benefits.In the current construction project, prevalence of rough calculations of power grid con-struction for a variety of equipment cost, then according to the equipment total investment tocompare different schemes are economic, as a planning scheme economic evaluation.Thismethod is lack of science and rationality, defect is reflected in:(1) the economy not only and the construction period, a variety of equipment investment,but also with power grid operation after the operation cost, electricity sales income of a rela-tionship, there is not complete;(2) the economic evaluation method, not considering capital time factors, and doesn’t ac-tually;(3) without consideration economic evaluation studies of factors, such as: the adjustmentofnational policy, the social and economic development, population change and environmentchange and other factors.On the project economic evaluation research, inspected the project economic index, onwhich the indefinite factors to produce operation difference and economy effect, forecast pro-ject may take the risk, measure of economic benefits.Study on Guangzhou K substation construction project economic evaluation research,discusses the financial evaluation theory and method, analysis of the impact of investmentefficiency evaluation of various factors, the factors on economic index influence degree, getrelevant research data.Mainly from the three aspects of project economic evaluation studies, including profitand loss balance analysis, sensitivity analysis and probability analysis.The profit and lossbalance factors including including linear and nonlinear profit and loss balance analysis; sen-sitivity analysis includes the single factor sensitivity analysis, dual factor sensitivity analysis,sensitivity analysis.Through the project economic evaluation research, for the project deci-sion-making provide reference data and the basic policy recommendations.