The Empirical Analysis Of Supply And Demand Relationship And Price Mechanism Of The Housing Market Of Tianjin

This paper mainly discusses the supply and demand relationship and price mechanism of the housing market of Tianjin. Firstly, on the basis of the former researching fruits, this paper looks back and summarizes the history and current situation of the housing market of Tianjin, and analyses the main factors affecting demand and supply. Secondly, this paper establishes the demand and supply model of Tianjin housing market. Because of the affection of the economic reform, outside impact and policies shift, the economic structure changes constantly, using fixed parameter model is difficult to show various impact factors in different period of different impaction degree. So, this paper makes a quantitative dynamic analysis on demand and supply in Tianjin housing market by using state space model and time varying parameter model. Finally, this paper analyses the price fluctuation of Tianjin housing market by using Cobweb modes.In the demand and supply model, the demand and supply function both choose the housing sales price and the one-year lending rate as the independent variable. The result shows the followings. Firstly, in the demand function of Tianjin housing market, the influence to the housing demand of loan interest rate is more important, interest rate elasticity is bigger than price elasticity, and the housing demand is more sensitive to the interest rate changing, while not very sensitive to housing price changing. Secondly, in the supply function of Tianjin housing market, the influence to the housing supply of housing sales price is more important, and price elasticity is much bigger than interest rate elasticity.It can be seen from the cobweb model that the price fluctuation of Tianjin housing market is emanative. That means the market is difficult to achieve Equilibrium of Supply and Demand status. Houses are different from other general merchandise, have consumer goods and investment goods dual attribute. Because of this particular attribute, the price mechanism of the housing market is difficult to play a regulatory role. So the government needs to implement Macro-control, ensures that the housing market achiebes steady and healthy development.According to the conclusions, this paper gives some advices, for instance: improving the supply structure of houses, improving housing security system, transforming housing concept of residents and inhibiting houses speculation.