The Financial Early-warning Studies Of Real Estate Credit Risks In China

As the pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry has theCharacteristics of capital-intensive, long period of return on investment, high risk, etc.In recent years, the rapid development of real estate industry leads to the increasingproportion of commercial bank loans to the real estate development enterprises, butalso increases the risk. Visible the real estate credit have a crucial impact on the realestate market and the financial markets. So according to the actual situation in Chinadeveloped in line with China’s national conditions of commercial bank real estatecredit risk control theory, Mean mile guidance and applied in practice, the articleshould focus on do research in it. Contrary to our real estate credit risks developmentof the specific circumstances, select38listed real estate companies in the Shanghaiand Shenzhen Stock market and27financial indicators. Build the model of the realestate credit risks.The main contents are as follows:First, expound the management system of commercial banks’ real estate creditbusiness in China. By analyzing real estate credit business of commercial banks inChina, to come out the main problems at the stage of Chinese, such as “FakeMortgage "phenomenon, the problem of non-performing loans and credit funds willflow to a small number of housing prices, a small room rate financing difficulties.Seconded, Analysis of the reasons for the formation of the real estate credit risksand impact factors.The formation causes include four aspects of macro and micro.Find out the Impact of factors from the three aspects of the industry, regional andcustomers.Firth, financial evaluation model of real estate credit risks.Build the financialevaluation index system of real estate credit risks. Collected the loan application dataof38listed real estate companies from commercial banks, Find out27financialindicators. Use of the idea of principal component analysis and logistic regressionmodel, build the financial evaluation model of real estate credit risks,and judging thecorrect rate of the model, Positive predictive value of the model to be judged.Fourth, put forward the management recommended of commercial banks’ real estate credit risks. This paper made from two specific aspects of the managementrecommendations of commercial banks’ real estate credit risks: one aspect is toimprove the internal control of the real estate credit risks of commercial banks;Another aspect is to create staff incentives for commercial banks’ real estate creditbusiness.