Study On Credit Risk Of The Commercial Bank From Real Estate Industry

Since February 2007, the U.S. Subprime mortgage crisis has staged the biggest"butterfly effect"in the global financial markets since the economic crisis in 1929. The global financial market began a dramatic turmoil. the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has expand to the global financial markets in a speed exceed the expectation of all people. In order to deserve the financial crisis, the Chinese government issued a full set of new real estate macro control policy. Now, the crisis storm has died down, however, the oscillation in global financial markets and investor's panic shock us had our attention, and prompted us to re-examine China's mortgage market.This paper starts by the analysis of the mechanism of U.S. sub-prime crisis and the Commercial Bank's credit risk faced by the real estate industry, analyses the credit risk status of the real estate industry from both the side of macro and micro, meanwhile make a comparison of the similarities and differences between the Chinese real estate industry and U.S. real estate industry's credit risk. And then analysised mechanism of the real estate credit risk in the commercial banks, found the current Chinese commercial banks'credit risk come from real estate is primarily individual housing mortgage loans, real estate companies and commercial banks theirselves, of which individual housing mortgage credit risk depends primarily on two aspects, one is ratio between real estate price and earnings, and second is ratio between the credit balances and GDP; The credit risk which come from real estate enterprise arises from two aspects, one is real estate company's own financial situation, such as the own funds ratio, debt ratio and liquidity ratio, and second, the macroeconomic environment in which the real estate business stays, including economic cycle and the exchange rate and other factors; In addition, factors come from the commercial banks own such as the ratio between real estate loan balance and total loans, real estate loan ratio of commercial banks, non-performing loan ratio is also one of the reasons of the real estate credit risk. Then by using Logistic credit risk measurement model and introducing the 97 listed real estate companies'financial data and the corresponding macroeconomic data from Q1 2003 to Q4 2008, established Logistic regression model, analysised and projected the real estate business credit default risk arrive at the conclusions: Determine the size of the real estate company's credit risk is not only the company's financial situation, macroeconomic indicators such as house prices, GDP growth, exchange rates and long-term interest rates and so on are also play an important role; In the company's financial indicators, sales profit margin, total assets and earnings per share growth rate is the most important indicators to determine the size of the real estate business credit default risk; Credit risk model Logistic listed overall credit risk prediction to the real estate companies in China's is accuracy, but to the ST company's prediction accuracy is low. Finally, this paper gave some policy recommendations for the commercial banks to strengthen the prevention and control to the credit risk come from real estate industry.