The DSGE Model Building And Prediction Analysis For China’s National Innovation System Under Internationalized Background

Rising contribution rate of S&T innovation for the economic growth of countries, both developed and developing countries, have been aware of the country’s ability to innovate will be the countries’an important bargaining chip in international competition. Therefore, the strategies to enhance the national capacity about national innovation system (NIS) are widespread concern in much of domestic and foreign academics.There still exist many problems in the construction of the NIS in china. In the theoretical support, using the model to support the related policy analysis is not enough. In actual construction, China’s NIS still faces enormous challenges:the NIS overall is discordant; the system lack of efficiency and innovation power etc.In this paper, starting from the composition of NIS and the interaction between the four departments which are enterprises, universities, government and internationalization of intermediaries in NIS, the study build the models by Chinese data based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) theory. It analyses the behavior of the various departments of the NIS in order to give some targeted and practical recommendations. At last, it gives the prediction analysis of the China’s NIS.First, enterprise innovation cost mainly depends on the sales revenue of new products. It predicts that by2015enterprise innovation cost in China will reach879.7billion yuan. Second, university knowledge production in lower cost level to facilitate access to scientific research. The ratio of the demand of domestic technology and technology introduction has a positive effect on the output of international papers for colleges and long-term significance. It predicts by2015, the number of international papers of colleges and universities in china will be more than400000yuan accounted for37%of the total number of papers. Third, the government mainly from two aspects induced innovation investment, by increasing R&D investment and reducing the corporate tax. It predicts by2015, enterprises patent applications will reach600000pieces. Lastly, to enhance the level of per capita income of scientific and technical personnel has a positive effect on domestic technical markets. It predicts that by2015, the ratio of the demand of domestic technology and technology introduction will reach4.53:1.