Research On Wind Power Industry Policy Simulatiobased On System Dynamics

With a growing energy needs and traditional energy constantly depletion, and it bringsthe serious problems of environmental pollution, the development of renewableenergy has become the focus of attention of the countries of the world. According toour country’s resources endowment status, wind power with its good social andenvironmental benefits, increasingly mature technology, gradually reduce the cost ofpower generation and offshore wind power of development, will surely become therenewable energy industry development in our country the key industry. In2006, thepromulgation of the renewable energy method makes the development of the windpower industry into a more standard and constantly improves the stage ofdevelopment. Based on the angle of the relation between supply and demand, and byestablishing a system dynamics model of the wind power industry, this paper analyzespresent situation of the development of the wind power industry, make a futuredeveloping direction of policy simulation studies, and put forward the optimizedimprovement plan.First, describe the endowment of wind energy resources in China, including theland-based wind energy resources and offshore wind energy resources, summarize theregional and seasonal characteristics of wind energy resources. Analysis of thedescription of the development stage of China’s wind power industry, which mainlyincludes three kinds of structure models of wind power industry developmentintroduction, review of the four stages of the development of wind power industryexperienced, and in recent years the country to put forward in support of wind powerindustry development policy.Second, build wind power industry system dynamics model based on the angle of therelation between supply and demand of the development of wind power industry.According to the preliminary analysis of causal system overall, the wind powerindustry system is divided into supply subsystem and subsystem, and the twosubsystems of the various elements of the internal analysis, which supply subsystemincludes four main factors: resources, labor, capital and technology; demandsubsystem includes two main factors: economic development needs and living electricity demand. Set up a system dynamics model of the wind power industry bychoosing the different influences and the various elements before analyzing therelation and the affection between them.Finally, the original data model of the "eleven five" during the prediction will be usedas the effect test to verify the reliability of the model. Based on data of2010, the trendof development of "the12th Five-Year Plan" and " the13th Five-Year Plan" policywill be simulated. And then, by adjusting the parameters of different values, differentpolicy tendency in development trend of wind power industry will be compared.According to the principle of optimization of resources, optimize and regulate schemeto put forward the wind power industry development policy next10years. Finally,conclude and discuss the deficiencies in research and improve the research on thisfield for the future long-term outlook.