Price Analysis And Forecasting Study Of Commercial Housing Alongside The Urban Rail Transit

The metro, as an important part of Urban Rail Transit, not only can savetransportation time of travelers but also can reduce transportation costs,it promoteshigh density development of adjacent land and appreciation of real estate as well. Atpresent our country is in the period of metro high-speed development, lacking ofimpacts research of metro on adjacent commercial housing price, scientific theory andmethodand deep study. However continual advancement of Urban Rail Transit and theurbanization in our country in recent years makes impacts research of metro onadjacent commercial housing price increasingly concerned.On the basis of the previous studies, this thesis focuses on rice analysis ofcommercial housing alongside the Urban Rail Transit and related studies. Firstly, thispaper reviewed domestic and international study status of impacts research of metroon adjacent commercial housing price from time effect and spatial effect. Thenthrough comparing previous study methods, the author builds a hedonic price modelof commercial housing based on testing calculataion. Finally, the author applies themodel based on data of commercial housing alongside Hangzhou Metro Line1toform the analysis result of time effect and spatial effect, proposing countermeasuresand suggestions management on adjacent commercial housing price in Hangzhoufrom the consequence of price forecasting and testing on sample data and newcommodity housing data.The progresses derived from the thesis are as follows:（1）Establishing forecating model of commercial housing price alongsideHangzhou Metro Line1and analysis results. Testing calculation and comparision byutilizing least square estimation of three forms of Hedonic Price Model, this thesis chooses logarithmic form to establish forecating model of commercial housing pricealongside Hangzhou Metro Line1and analysis results from time effect and spatialeffect.（2）Finding out reasonable weight of characteristic variable. Through findingout a large number of relevant documents, this paper analysises estimation resultsfrom view of qualitative and quantitative point by forecasting model. Furthermore itapplies sensitivity analysis to estimate influence degree of characteristic variablewhich makes analysis result more scientific.（3）Proposing suggestions for management on adjacent commercial housingprice in Hangzhou. According to testing calcuation on sample data and newcommodity housing data, this thesis proproses proposing countermeasures andsuggestions management on commercial housing price alongside Hangzhou Metro.