Research On Overall Risk In Chemical Industry Park And Prediction Of Consequence Of Accident

The development of chemical industry park plays an important role in the economic development of china.With expansion of the scale and increasing amount of chemical industry park,security issues have become increasingly prominent in the park. Because of large amount of dangerous material,once the accident happens, the consequences will be catastrophic. Therefore, improve risk assessment system of chemical industry park, take good security measures. It is important to make research on risk prediction and consequence analysis of accidents in tank zone. It plays an important role in ensuring sustainable and stable development of chemical industry park. Because of the special working environment of the chemical industry park, a small problem may lead to a series of accidents,which calls the Domino effect.(1) Do overall research on the risk of chemical industry park. The risk factors which may cause the initial accident are classified and analyzed through the method of fault tree analysis. Finding out the basic events which affect the top event can provide theoretical basis for research on the initial accident.(2)In order to prevent risk of the fire thermal radiation effectively and reduce the occurrence of twice damage accident, prediction on risk of thermal radiation in storage tank was made.This paper mainly analysis the consequence of thermal radiation which caused by storage tank fire and explosion accident. Based on Domino effect theory,BP neural network model of damage probability was set up, the relationship between twice damage probability and impact factors including volume of equipment, view factor and distance was discussed. Based on theory of Domino risk, damage probability in different parameters was calculated and selected as samples to train and test the network. Error analysis between prediction and actual results was also discussed.(3)Research on equipment damage model and analyzed the factors affecting damage probability, the the laws between influence factors and probability of the damage equipment.Provide suggestions for safety in production.Fault tree analysis is used in this paper mainly to complete research on risk analysis of chemical park accident.By using the method of BP neural network, prediction model of accident was set up.And the risk factors were analyzed, key factors which impact whole system was summed up.The results showed that, this method used practicability in the risk assessment of chemical industry park.