Study On Traffic Mode Choice Of Urban Residents Under Snow And Ice Conditions

Residents travel mode structure is not only one of the important issues of urbantransport demand forecasts,but also the basis of traffic planning and transport policyimplementation. To study the travel mode structure of urban residents under snow andice conditions is helpful to improve urban traffic efficiency. The impact of ice and snowcause efficiency reduction of some travel modes, and broken of traffic balance, leadingto unbalance of transport resource utilization. To study residents’ travel mode choiceunder snow and ice conditions, is a new idea to solve urban traffic problems.First, we studies the basic characteristics of residents’ travel demand and roadtraffic purveyance under the snow and ice conditions in this paper. Through theapplication of behavioral decision theory, we qualitative analysis of the impact of snowand ice conditions on residents’ elastic demand and inelastic travel demand. Accordingto traffic survey data, we quantitative analysis the impact of snow and ice conditions onthe road peak hour traffic, the saturation flow rate of intersections as well as free flowspeed of the vehicles. Based on survey data, we study characteristics of various travelmodes under snow and ice conditions. By analysis travel speed, travel time and waitingtime of various travel modes, we obtained the Erlang distribution function of travelspeed probability density under snow and ice conditions, then quantitative analysis theimpact of snow and ice conditions on travel time and waiting time. Through statedpreference survey on urban residents, we obtain travel time value of various travelmodes under different weather conditions.We study the problem of residents travel choice under snow and ice conditionsfrom a microeconomic perspective, which is based on the characteristics of travelbehavior in decision-making. Travel time, travel costs, safety, comfort and convenienceare selected as model parameters. The weight coefficients of each parameter iscalculated according to the information entropy method and the analytic hierarchyprocess. We consider differences in the subjective preferences of the traveler, as well asdifferences in various travel modes. By using the method of the multi-objective decisiontheory to calculate the value of the comprehensive advantages of various travel modes,we ultimately build the residents’ travel mode choice model under snow and iceconditions. We propose the model objective about minimum the consumption of space-time resource and travel costs from the perspective of improving traffic efficiency andreducing travel cost. By taking into account the limitation of the urban transport roadresources, energy consumption efficiency and environmental impact, constraints of themodel are proposed. Finally, we optimize residents’ travel structure in Harbin undersnow and ice conditions, and proposed the corresponding implementation strategy. We analysis the characteristics of residents travel mode choice under snow and iceconditions in this paper，which is helpful to optimize the structure of residents’ travelmode, to improve the operating efficiency of urban transportation system, and tomaximize the overall function of the transport system, so as to effectively alleviate theurban traffic congestion problems, and to provide a theoretical basis for thedevelopment of transportation planning and transport policy implementation undersnow and ice conditions.